Numbers game: Opposition's blitz sinks BJP's delimitation-linked women’s quota bid

The defeat of the tweaked women’s Reservation Bill and the associated delimitation laws is the second major legislative setback for the Modi government after the repeal the three agriculture laws in 2021.

Over the last 48-hours, as the Lok Sabha debated the women quota bill, it became increasingly clear that the government lacked two-thirds majority in the lower house needed to get the Constitution Amendment Bill passed. It was left with three options: sending the bill to a parliamentary committee for further discussion or withdraw the bill.

Instead, the BJP chose to go down as martyr by going for a division and accused the I.N.D.I.A. bloc of creating impediments in the process of women empowerment.

“Those opposing will have to face the ire of women voters,” Amit Shah said replying to the bill, taking a more combating line against the opposition vis a vis PM Modi who was more conciliatory on Thursday.

In the run up to the parliament debate, the arguments, for and against the proposed law, coalesced into two competing political frames created by NDA and opposition.

The BJP and its allies sought to project the three bills as an attempt by the Modi government to empower the women by early implementation of the women’s quota in the Lok Sabha and the State assemblies.

The opposition countered this position by building an alternative narrative, alleging, the women’s quota bill was a decoy to pass the delimitation laws to redraw India’s electoral map for 2029 Lok Sabha polls.

This position was first articulated by former Congress President Sonia Gandhi in a signed article. By seeking a “politically equitable” distribution of seats, Sonia voiced the concerns of the southern states which have actively managed population growth in the last four decades and are apprehensive of losing out to the heartland provinces of the delimitation is based of population growth.

Sonia also tried to bring on board the Mandal parties, by demanding the 2027 census and the concomitant caste count be factored in for gerrymandering. Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, with 37 MPs in the LS has been demanding quota within quota for backward classes to join the chorus.

The treasury benches attempted to dilute an DMK aggressive stand against the bill by getting public endorsement from another CM from the south Indian state, TDP leader and Andhra Chief Minister N Chandra Babu Naidu.

In the run up to the three-day parliament session, the biggest concern for the opposition remained whether 28 TMC MPs, currently busy with campaigning, would be able to attend the house and participate in voting. Mamata Banerjee’s support was crucial for the opposition to muster more than one-third members required to defeat the bill.

Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi’s blunt message in the opposition meeting in Delhi on Tuesday that abstention from voting would mean indirectly helping BJP pass the bill galvanised the opposition. Up against BJP and NDA allies in their respective states where campaigning is already underway, TMC and DMK could ill afford to have been indirectly sided with the BJP.

For Akhilesh Yadav too, who faces elections BJP’s Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh next year, too sharpened his attack on the Modi government.

The clinching argument that galvanised the opposition ranks was apprehension that I.N.D.I.A. bloc would be at a dis-advantage if the delimitation of LS seats were done in a way that suited NDA and its allies.

Just before the house met on Wednesday, a senior Congress manager said “the bill by the BJP is for 2029 LS polls. We will not allow its passage.”

Till Thursday late night and Friday early morning, government managers tried to explore options with back channel and un-official talks with the opposition, but the ship had already sailed.

The I.N.D.I.A. bloc wanted that an assurance of 50 per cent increase in LS seats in each state be made part of the bill and 2027 Census data be used for the next delimitation exercise.

Short of the half-way mark in the current Lok Sabha, the defeat of the bills also underscores BJP’s dependence on its allies to muster simple majority for ordinary legislations and a broader consensus across political spectrum for bills that require special two-thirds majority.