Of cross-voting and defections: High stakes in Bihar, Haryana and Odisha Rajya Sabha polls

New Delhi: Rajya Sabha elections will be held in Bihar, Haryana and Odisha on Monday with the ruling BJP-led NDA attempting to minimise the Opposition's victory prospects in three seats by backing two independents linked to the saffron party and RLM chief Upendra Kushwaha.

Their victory will require cross-voting from the Opposition in the states where the BJP-led NDA is in power. Fearing defections, Congress has moved most of its 14 MLAs in Odisha to Bengaluru and 31 of 37 in Haryana to Himachal Pradesh.

Adding worries to the Congress in Odisha, its MLA Dasarathi Gamang is untraceable and the party has issued a show cause notice to him. Similarly, its vocal MLA Sofia Firdous has expressed resentment over the party's decision to join hands with BJD, which she called BJP's "B-Team". She also claimed that she was not consulted and was excluded from poll preparations.

Already, 26 candidates have been elected unopposed in seven states with BJP cornering seven of them, Congress 5, Trinamool Congress 4, DMK 3 and Shiv Sena, RPI(A), NCP, NCP(SP), AIADMK, PMK and UPPL one each. The winners include Sharad Pawar, Abhishek Singhvi, Tiruchi Siva and Vinod Tawade.

The contest in Bihar is certain to see Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, BJP president Nitin Nabin, Union Minister Ram Nath Thakur (JD-U) and BJP’s Shivesh Kumar getting into Rajya Sabha but RLM’s Upendra Kushwaha, who is three short of 41 first preference votes, will have to depend on cross-voting or second preference votes.

The I.N.D.I.A bloc, which has fielded sitting RJD MP AD Singh as its candidate, is staring at a more serious trouble as it is short of six votes to win and will have to bank on five MLAs of AIMIM and one of BSP.

The NDA is confident of Kushwaha's victory, saying it has enough value of votes to get him through even as there has been speculation about some of the six MLAs from the Congress jumping ship for some time.

In Haryana, Congress has enough numbers to get Karamvir Boudh to be elected but Satish Nandal, a BJP leader who is fighting as an independent, has queered the pitch. BJP's Sanjay Bhatia, a former Lok Sabha MP considered close to Union Minister ML Khattar, is certain to cruise through.

BJP has 48 MLAs besides support of three independents. With a candidate needing only 31 first preference votes, the surplus is all set to go to Nandal and the BJP is banking on cross-voting from Congress MLAs who are upset about the candidate selection.

In 2022, Congress' Ajay Maken had lost the election by a whisker after then Congress leaders Kuldeep Bishnoi and Kiran Choudhary, who later joined the BJP, allegedly played a role in the defeat. In 2016, Congress-backed independent RK Anand lost the polls after around a dozen MLAs marked votes using an unauthorised pen.

Former Union Minister Dilip Ray's entry in Odisha as an independent has muddied the election scene in Odisha where BJP has fielded two candidates and BJD filed Santrupt Misra and supported a common candidate Datteswar Hota with the Congress’ support.

While the election of Manmohan Samal and Sujeet Kumar (both BJP) and Misra (BJD) are certain, the victory of the BJD-Congress candidate is uncertain as Ray is believed to have the political resources to tilt the votes in the Opposition camp to his side.

In the 147-member Assembly, BJP has 79 MLAs besides the support of three independents, BJD 50, including two who have been suspended, Congress 14 and CPI(M) 1. One candidate would need 31 first preference votes to win. Even if BJP transfers its surplus votes, Ray will be short of 11 votes.

Congress had not put up a candidate for the third seat in Assam as it had not enough numbers, which led to the unanimous victory of Terash Gowalla, Jogen Mohan (both BJP) and UPPL’s Pramod Boro.

In Chhattisgarh, Congress lost one sitting seat to BJP owing to numbers even as Laxmi Verma (BJP) and Phulo Devi Netam (Congress) were elected unopposed.

West Bengal saw Trinamool Congress winning four seats – Babul Supriyo, Rajiv Kumar, Menaka Guruswamy and Koel Mallick. BJP’s Rahul Sinha also won the seat vacated by CPI(M)’s Bikash Ranjan Bhattacharya.

In Maharashtra, Tawade, Maya Chintan Ivnate, Ramrao Wadkute (all BJP), Jyoti Waghmare (Shiv Sena), Parth Pawar (NCP), Ramdas Athawale (RPI-A) and Sharad Pawar (NCP-SP) won unopposed. Anurag Sharma of Congress won the lone Himachal Pradesh seat.

Telangana saw Singhvi returning to the House while Congress also got a second seat with Vem Narender Reddy, a close aide of Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy – winning unopposed. BRS or BJP did not field a candidate as they did not have enough numbers.

In Tamil Nadu, DMK’s Tiruchi Siva, J Constandine Ravindran (both DMK), LD Sudhish (DMDK), Christopher Tilak (Congress), M Thambidurai (AIADMK) and Anbumani Ramadoss (PMK) won without an election. (ENDS)