Welfare schemes or anti‑incumbency: What will Puducherry pick?

A small UT braces for a fiercely competitive triangular fight in the assembly elections.

Chennai: Assembly elections in the Union Territory (UT) of Puducherry have always been intensely local and personality-driven, primarily due to its size — 30 constituencies and about 9.44 lakh eligible voters.

The April 9 election is no different: It is a clash between Puducherry’s two most popular politicians — N Rangasamy and V Vaithilingam — as they lead the AINRC-BJP and Congress-DMK alliances, respectively. Actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has also entered the race, making it a triangular contest.

However, the Congress has put the hitherto cohesive alliance in peril: Its candidates are taking on the DMK and the VCK in six constituencies, which is likely to help the AINRC-BJP alliance. Winning margins are usually slender due to the size of the electorate, as constituencies are the size of bigger cities’ corporation wards.

While the Congress has promised action against the rebels, it doesn’t make much difference because they remain in the fray. The Congress-DMK seat-sharing talks faltered, which led to confusion, with smaller allies like the VCK and the Left fielding their own candidates.

Vaithilingam, the lone Lok Sabha member from Puducherry, has made the intense electoral battle more interesting by challenging incumbent Chief Minister Rangaswamy in his traditional seat of Thattanchavadi, from where the latter has won five times. Rangasamy is also contesting from a second seat: Mangalam.

Vaithilingam and Rangasamy have personal scores to settle: The former led a rebellion against the latter in 2008 and eventually replaced him as the CM. Three years later, Rangasamy quit the Congress to float the AINRC, decimating his former party led by Vaithilingam, who had been CM twice, a minister, and also Assembly speaker.

Personal aura vs politics

The April 9 contest will decide whether the AINRC-BJP can retain the outgoing government’s welfare edge or the Congress-DMK alliance can capitalise on the anti-incumbency. Or will the TVK from neighbouring Tamil Nadu spring a surprise?

While the results hinge more on personal equations, local loyalties, micro-alliances, and caste factors, issues do matter. Money also plays a major role: “Cash for votes” is no secret in Puducherry, like in TN.

Granting statehood to Puducherry — currently a UT set-up, which means the elected CM has far lesser powers than the nominated Lieutenant-Governor — as well as neglect of people’s needs in the sub-regions such as Karaikal, Mahe, and Yanam, the privatisation of the Electricity Department, and lack of jobs for the local youth are some issues that could sway this election.

The statehood promise strikes a chord with the people as they still remember the 2016-2021 public spats between then L-G Kiran Bedi and CM V Narayanaswamy. The incumbent Rangasamy government has also come under criticism for not holding elections for civic bodies despite a Supreme Court order.

People are also upset with the government for not focusing on infrastructure issues, including drainage and other basic amenities. They also say no effort has been made to address traffic congestion in the tiny UT, and accuse the outgoing administration of not fulfilling its promise of generating more jobs.

The politics of it

Rangasamy is pinning his hopes on the welfare schemes — Direct Benefit Transfers to the elderly, destitute women, women heads of BPL families, and cyclone relief for ration cardholders — and infrastructure projects like new roads, new buses, and industrial estates. However, if the Congress capitalises on anti-incumbency, it could bring him down.

Opposition parties also allege that a 30%-commission culture has taken root in the UT, and that 90% of the promises made to the people remain unfulfilled.

A traditional Congress stronghold, Puducherry has sprung surprises in the past by voting the DMK into power thrice and the AIADMK twice. Vijay believes luck could be on his side this time, but his party has nothing to bank on except his on-screen popularity.

The BJP entered the Puducherry Assembly through the back door, with three party functionaries nominated to the House between 2016 and 2021. It then tactically aligned with AINRC in 2021 by sidelining the AIADMK and joined the government by winning six seats. It made inroads in no time by weaning away Congress rebels like then-home minister A Namassivayam just weeks before the 2021 Assembly elections.

For the past few years, the DMK has also been making silent inroads into the UT and hopes to perform better this time.

The bottom line

This is a make-or-break election for the Congress, which is why it has projected Vaithilingam over ex-CM Narayanaswamy, who is seen as a Delhi man due to his long stint in the national capital.

If Rangasamy is trounced, it would be sweet revenge for both the Congress and Vaithilingam. If the Congress loses, this will be the first time in several decades that it will be out of power in the UT for two consecutive terms.

However, a second consecutive term for Rangasamy would not only validate his standing as a popular leader but also reinforce the BJP’s strength in managing complex coalition politics and help it build an independent base in the UT.