Rising winter temperatures threaten India's wheat bowl, raising fresh food security concerns

Mumbai: A silent climate shift unfolding across India's wheat-growing heartland is emerging as a major threat to the country's food security, with warmer winters, rising night-time temperatures and recurring spring heatwaves steadily eroding wheat productivity, according to a new study.

The report, Wheat Under Stress: Climate Change, Rising Heat, and Adaptation Pathways in India's Major Wheat-Growing States, released by Climate Trends, warns that the climatic conditions that helped transform India into the world's second-largest wheat producer are changing rapidly, putting future harvests at risk.

India currently produces around 107 million tons of wheat annually and accounts for nearly 14 per cent of global output. Wheat is the country's second most important food grain after rice and is central to the national food distribution system.

The findings come at a particularly sensitive moment. Just days after the India Meteorological Department revised its 2026 monsoon forecast downward to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average, global meteorological agencies are also monitoring what could become the strongest El Niño event since 2015-16. Together, these developments raise concerns about simultaneous stress on both the rabi and kharif cropping seasons.

The study examined wheat production trends across five major wheat-producing states—Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat—and found a worrying decline in productivity growth over the past three decades.

The most dramatic slowdown has occurred in Haryana and Punjab, the backbone of India's Green Revolution. Haryana's decadal wheat growth rate has plunged from nearly 30 per cent during 1986-95 to minus 2.6 per cent between 2015 and 2025. Punjab has witnessed a similar trajectory.

Researchers say one of the most alarming trends is the rapid rise in minimum temperatures. Across all major wheat-growing states, nights are warming faster than days. In Gujarat, night-time temperatures are rising almost three times faster than daytime temperatures, while Uttar Pradesh and Haryana have recorded the sharpest increases in minimum temperatures.

Unlike daytime heat, which is immediately visible, warmer nights quietly undermine plant physiology. Wheat plants use cooler nights to conserve energy and build grain mass. Rising night-time temperatures increase respiration, causing plants to consume carbohydrate reserves that would otherwise contribute to grain development.

"One of the most under-recognized threats to India's wheat production is the steady increase in night-time temperatures," said Dr Palak Balyan, Research Lead at Climate Trends and lead author of the study. "What we are witnessing is not simply hotter weather but a gradual alteration of the seasonal patterns that made India's wheat systems productive and predictable."

The study also found that winter itself is shrinking. February is warming fastest, recording a temperature increase of 0.69 degrees Celsius per decade, followed by April at 0.66 degrees and March at 0.58 degrees. These warmer late-winter months are shortening the grain-filling period, leading to premature crop maturity, shriveled grains and lower yields.

Adding to farmers' woes is the increasing unpredictability of rainfall. Western disturbances are arriving later and delivering heavier rainfall during March and April, often coinciding with harvest season. Such untimely rainfall damages standing crops, affects grain quality and reduces storage life.

The report notes that while farmers are adapting by altering sowing dates, adopting heat-tolerant varieties and improving water management practices, these measures remain insufficient against the pace of climatic change.

Aarti Khosla, Founder and Director of Climate Trends, said climate change is no longer a future threat but an immediate agricultural reality. "Across regions, farmers are reporting lower grain quality, repeated crop losses and rising input costs. Building long-term resilience through climate-smart agriculture, early warning systems and innovative risk protection mechanisms has become essential."

Experts say the challenge extends beyond agriculture. Wheat is a strategic commodity linked directly to food inflation, nutrition security, public distribution programmes and rural livelihoods. The severe heatwave of 2022 forced India to impose a wheat export ban after production losses disrupted supplies and pushed global prices higher.

With climate volatility increasing and extreme weather events becoming more frequent, the report argues that safeguarding India's wheat sector will require coordinated action involving scientific research, climate-resilient farming practices, policy reforms and greater support for farmers on the frontlines of climate change.

Key Findings

• India's wheat heartland—Punjab and Haryana—is warming faster than most other wheat-growing regions.

• Night-time temperatures are rising faster than daytime temperatures across all major wheat-producing states.

• Haryana's wheat growth rate has fallen from about 30% in 1986-95 to -2.6% during 2015-25.

• February is warming fastest, registering an increase of 0.69°C per decade.

• Higher night temperatures increase plant respiration, reducing grain weight and lowering yields.

• Heat stress during flowering and grain-filling stages is causing premature maturity and shriveled grains.

• Unseasonal rainfall during March and April is damaging standing crops and reducing grain quality.

• Farmers report increased pest pressures, poor germination, reduced tillering and declining storage life of harvested wheat.

• Climate risks threaten not only farm incomes but also India's broader food security and inflation management efforts.

• Researchers call for climate-smart agriculture, improved forecasting systems, resilient seed varieties and stronger policy support for adaptation.