Survival test for AAP amid a diminishing Brand Kejriwal

New Delhi: In less than three months, the Aam Aadmi Party will be facing its most challenging electoral test yet. Political clairvoyants are unwilling to call it either way at the moment despite 'Brand Kejriwal' suffering a credibility crisis in the past couple of years.

For pundits, there is a reason to be careful. The party survived the 2015 and 2020 Assembly elections in Delhi after a rout in the Lok Sabha polls. In 2015, it still had birth pangs and in 2020, several of its founding leaders had left the party. 

Though there are conventional reasons to write off the AAP this time, no one is willing to do so. This could be because the party had defied conventions to rise into power within months of its inception and had an innate ability to hold its nerves during a crisis.

The question now is will Delhi's ruling party manage to play another innings, as it is facing not just turbulence this time.

As it ventures out for its third election in the national capital, the charm of AAP — once considered to be a 'fresh breath in the filth of politics' — has been diminished, despite it spreading its wings in Punjab. Its top leadership was in jail on charges of corruption, some senior ministers have quit and some Kejriwal loyalists are sitting on the fence.

Despite all these, the AAP seems to be confident. It believes the youngest ruling party in the country will still manage to bring voters to choose its narrative rather than what the BJP, which has been out of power in Delhi for the past 26 years, is trying to sell. 

Electoral machinery rolling

The Kejriwal-led party has already announced candidates for 11 of 70 seats, including five which were won by the BJP. It is benching loyalists — Speaker Ram Niwas Goel at 76 and technocrat Dilip Pandey at 44 – and fielding turncoats in their constituencies. 

Besides, the party has identified one lakh office-bearers at the grassroots level to coordinate the poll campaign and another 5,000 all-women groups to take the specific messages to voters.

Party chief Arvind Kejriwal is on a relentless 'padayatra', which sometimes attracts extra attention due to attacks on him. He hard sells how he is being crucified for working for the welfare of Delhiites while warning that the BJP will withdraw all people-centric benefits like free power, free water, affordable health facilities and better education. 

He vows to implement the vote-catching scheme of Rs 1,000 per month dole to women. 

In its bid to outsmart AAP in the upcoming election, the BJP, too, has now gone to the town with a promise that it may come with a Direct Benefit Transfer to women once it comes to power, a model which reaped dividends for the saffron camp in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. On the other hand, AAP says BJP's change in stand on 'revdis' (freebies) vindicates it.

It is not just a promise for women that the BJP is banking on. It has some ammunition in its arsenal — from the Delhi liquor scam to the 'extravagant' renovation of the official residence of the "common man" chief minister among others. Adding fire power is Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena's intervention, which the AAP claims is hindering its work. 

One thing is sure; the sheen of AAP's anti-corruption plank has suffered a hit. Does this mean the party is on the backfoot? Even if that is the case, the party has not forgotten to fight back.

The past couple of years has seen AAP — a party of leaders with no or little political experience — navigating the choppy electoral waters. The sailing wasn't smooth for many reasons. It faced an existential question as the ruling BJP at the Centre managed to put the AAP's top leadership — Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh as well as Satyendar Jain — in jail. 

Predictions go wrong

Several predicted a split in the party with Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann possibly heading one side. At least three ministers, all Kejriwal loyalists at one point of time — quit the party. A woman leader accused Kejriwal's aide of assault in his presence. 

Despite all these, the party defied traditional political logic to stay united to a large extent, thanks to Kejriwal's moves. 

He refused to quit while in jail and when he came out, he decided to hand over the chair to a junior Atishi for a few months. It helps him to escape the burden of administrative decisions not taken or implemented while blunting criticism of a graft accused occupying the chair. Atishi's choice did create heartburn but except for Kailash Gahlot quitting to join the BJP, Kejriwal has managed to quell any inner-party challenges so far.

The BJP could not target AAP on another count too, as the latter did not hesitate to flaunt its Hindu credentials at every opportunity. Invoking Lord Hanuman has become a ritual for Kejriwal, a move on which the BJP cannot attack AAP.

Senior AAP leader Sanjay Singh says people will once again vote to ensure the return of Kejriwal to power. BJP’s Delhi chief Virender Sachdeva, however, believes it is his party’s turn now.

With a diminished Congress and a lacklustre BJP in Delhi, AAP believes its pole position in the capital remains intact.