High-stakes Erode (East) bypolls: Will AIADMK and BJP contest?

Chennai: Tamil Nadu gets ready for yet another high-octane bypolls, scheduled to be held on February 5 to the Erode (east) assembly constituency, with all eyes on the strategy to be adopted by AIADMK and BJP, while the ruling DMK alliance is likely to allot the seat to the Congress.

This is the second time that the constituency faces a bypoll in two years due to the death of Congress MLAs Thirumahan Evera and his father E V K S Elangovan. 

Bypolls have become a costly affair in Tamil Nadu in the past few decades with the ruling parties pumping in massive financial resources besides deputing almost the entire cabinet in the constituency to ensure victory, a prestige issue. In 2017, the bypoll to R K Nagar constituency which fell vacant due to the death of AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa was rescinded due to rampant use of money power to buy votes. 

Barring in 2019 when opposition DMK won 13 of the 22 seats that went to bypolls, only the ruling party nominees have won in byelections since the 1990s. 

So far, only the DMK and Tamil nationalist outfit, Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK) have announced that they will field their candidates.

Thirumahan Eevera won the seat in 2021 but after his death in 2023, the Congress fielded his father Elangovan, grand nephew of social reformer E V R Periyar, in the bypolls. The family is seeking the seat for one of its members this time as well. 

AIADMK, which boycotted the 2024 bypoll to Vikravandi in northern Tamil Nadu, will take a call on whether to contest the election on January 11, while the BJP will also take a couple of days to arrive at a decision. 

In fact, both the AIADMK and BJP, which allotted the Vikravandi seat to PMK in 2024, are caught in a dilemma. While a defeat at the hands of the DMK, against whom the two parties have been reading a huge complaint list for the past several months, will come as a major electoral setback, boycotting the election would also bring them in the line of fire of the ruling alliance partners who have been accusing them of scared to face the people. 

The opposition cannot also field a common candidate as it will be construed as the AIADMK and BJP coming together, which doesn’t suit the anti-saffron party stand currently adopted by the Dravidian outfit. 

For the AIADMK, the stakes are quite high in Erode in the western part of Tamil Nadu, the party’s long-held bastion. Not contesting in Erode, which neighbours AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami’s native district of Salem, will also not augur well for the Opposition party, especially when assembly elections are less than 18 months away. In 2023 bypolls, the AIADMK candidate lost the election to Elangovan by a margin of over 60,000 votes. 

The BJP, which has been claiming that its vote share has increased in the state, more so in western Tamil Nadu from where its state unit chief K Annamalai hails, is also under pressure to contest. However, the party is also wary of the result especially if the AIADMK decides to enter the fray. 

Political analysts say the DMK will walk the extra mile to ensure the victory of the Congress candidate to “demonstrate that the ruling alliance continues to enjoy the support of the people.”

“AIADMK and BJP have to take a decision soon. They will be criticised if they boycott the elections and will face several questions in the event of losing the poll. They are actually in a Catch-22 situation,” a political analyst told DH on the condition of anonymity.