Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026 | Can DMK hold Northern TN stronghold against AIADMK-PMK surge?

VILLUPURAM (TN): Northern Tamil Nadu, with 64 assembly constituencies encompassing 11 districts, is the largest region in the state where the DMK and AIADMK have fought pitched battles in their pursuit to Fort St. George, the seat of power of the Tamil Nadu government. 

This is also the stronghold of the Pattali Makkal Katchi, representing Vanniyars, and prominent Dalit party Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) – the contest is always polarising, owing to long-held rivalry not just between two communities but the two parties too. 

The DMK alliance swept the region in 2021 elections by winning 46 of the 64 seats, while the AIADMK and PMK managed just 18, despite the then government’s last-minute legislation granting 10.5 percent internal reservation to Vanniyars. The move favoured the NDA only in pockets, but the counter consolidation by other communities against them hurt the AIADMK alliance. 

In this region, the DMK has to fight not just the resurgent AIADMK and PMK but also the Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), whose impact is expected to be high here just like Southern Tamil Nadu, with youth from rival groups supporting actor-politician Vijay. 

“In our village, which has about 1,000 votes, at least 250 to 350 people are likely to vote for Vijay, not just Dalits, but sections of Vanniyars and others too,” Mathi, an auto driver, told DH outside Tindivanam bus terminus.

Caste factor and the Vijay challenge

In several villages, caste trumps candidates or parties: Vanniyars openly declare they won’t vote for VCK, while Dalits categorically reject PMK. “I am a DMK man but I won’t vote for VCK. If it was a DMK nominee, I would have voted,” Babu said. “It is not merely about caste; it is about pride,” he added.

In this region, DMK and VCK could suffer significant damage from the Vijay factor, especially if Dalits, who have backed the Dravidian party in large numbers since 2019, shift to TVK. 

VCK has also faced a perceptual setback after chief Thol. Thirumavalavan withdrew from Kattumannarkoil; the party seems unhappy over DMK's seat-sharing talks. The party has been taking efforts to prevent the migration of young voters to TVK but with little success. 

It is not mere cinema craze: fatigue with the two Dravidian majors is driving youth across communities to Vijay, who strategically held his first conference in Vikravandi.

AIADMK-PMK synergy

PMK, wielding considerable Vanniyar influence, is a clear value-addition for AIADMK which is evident from their ground synergy. Though perceived as split between founder S Ramadoss and son Anbumani, Vanniyar votes are unlikely to fracture vertically, despite the father’s faction fielding candidates.

“Ayya (Ramadoss) has to retire from politics and hand over the party to Anbumani,” Mani told DH at Acharapakkam in Kanchipuram district.

“We also thought people may not vote for PMK without Ayya. But it looks like the community will transfer votes to Anbumani-led PMK. The son didn’t muddy the waters like his father; he used others to discredit him while staying silent. That seems to have helped,” Mani added. 

Anbumani going to the town accusing the DMK of “not taking efforts” to stop the 10.5 per cent reservation given by the AIADMK by getting struck by the Supreme Court also has some resonance among people, but the ruling party is also taking every effort to hold onto to its citadel. AIADMK is banking on its traditional votes and the anti-incumbency votes but Vijay is likely to take a chunk of it. 

PMK has also intensified fights in the Vanniyar heartland, fielding Anbumani’s wife Sowmiya from Dharmapuri and making Congress’ G K M Tamil Kumaran (son of Ramadoss confidante G K Mani) sweat in Pennagaram. Anbumani’s daughters campaign there, accusing Mani of splitting the family and party. On his part, Ramadoss has appealed to the people to defeat PMK candidates in all 18 seats. 

Calculations of AIADMK and DMK

AIADMK has upped its game by fielding heavyweights in the region and keeping in mind the caste calculations.

 

But the DMK is inherently strong in the region. Even in 2016, when the AIADMK returned to power, Northern Tamil Nadu favoured the DMK with its alliance winning 34 of the total 64 seats, pushing the AIADMK with 29 seats to second position. 

In districts like Tiruvannamalai, Vellore, and Ranipet, and Tiruvallur, the DMK is banking on its traditional votes, government’s schemes, and minorities. However, the party is likely to suffer in many pockets due to “bad selection” of candidates, providing advantage to the AIADMK and PMK candidates. 

In districts like Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, and Chengalpattu, located in proximity to Chennai, livelihood issues take the centre stage. It is to be seen whether the ripple effects of actor Vijay contesting from Perambur in Chennai will reflect in this region. 

‘DMK will perform better than expectations’

Prof Ramu Manivannan, former head of the Department of Politics and Public Administration, told DH that the DMK will continue to perform better than expectations in this election and won't crumble. He added that it was an untested assumption that VCK's vote will go to TVK, arguing, "How can a person ideologically committed to someone like Thirumavalavan vote against him?"

"AIADMK can do well in this region because they have chosen good candidates. And let me say that DMK is not going to be defeated by Vijay, but by its own choice of candidates in the region," Manivannan added. He also said the AIADMK's alliance with PMK was forging well in Vanniyar-dominated constituencies, which could play to their advantage.

NORTH TAMIL NADU:

DISTRICTS:

TIRUVALLUR

KANCHIPURAM

CHENGALPATTU

RANIPET

VELLORE

TIRUPPATTUR

TIRUVANNAMALAI

KRISHNAGIRI

DHARMAPURI

VILLUPURAM

KALLAKURICHI

NO. OF CONSTITUENCIES: 64

2021 RESULTS:

DMK+: 46

AIADMK+: 18