Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026 | Mukulathor vote splits: AIADMK-BJP's gamble at risk?

The battle for the votes of Mukulathors has become fierce with a large section shifting loyalties towards Dhinakaran’s AMMK and the DMK.

Mukulathors, a dominant community that holds the key to victory in about 60 assembly seats in central and southern Tamil Nadu, have largely sided with the AIADMK since the days of M G Ramachandran. This dominance further consolidated under J Jayalalithaa, largely due to the prominence she gave to V K Sasikala.

However, Jayalalithaa’s death in 2016 and the systemic sidelining of community leaders – Sasikala, T T V Dhinakaran, and O Panneerselvam – by the AIADMK now led by Edappadi K Palaniswami, a Gounder by caste, changed the political landscape dramatically.

Since then, the battle for the votes of Mukulathors -- an umbrella term for Maravars, Kallars, and Agamudaiyars -- has become fierce with a large section shifting loyalties towards Dhinakaran’s AMMK and the DMK.

Why was AMMK inducted into the NDA?

AIADMK inducted AMMK into the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to unify and consolidate the Mukulathor votes, at the insistence of the BJP, whose support is also growing within the community. Dhinakaran, who rebelled against Palaniswami, agreed to the BJP’s suggestion after initial reluctance to safeguard his own political future.

However, the effort might have hit roadblocks with Sasikala fielding in the region, and OPS now joining arch-rival, DMK, which has been eyeing a sizeable portion of the community votes. Mukulathors constitute about 8 to 10 per cent of Tamil Nadu’s population, prompting every political party to woo them actively.

Every year on October 30, political leaders across Tamil Nadu flock to Pasumpon village in Ramanathapuram district to pay respects to Forward Bloc leader U Muthuramalinga Thevar, revered by Mukulathors. While Thevar remains a deeply divisive figure in southern Tamil Nadu – he is denounced by Dalits -- this visit has become a ritual over the past few decades as political parties are driven by the pursuit of Mukulathors.

Though Sasikala’s nominees are not expected to win elections, the votes they secure, even a few thousands, are sure to hurt the prospects of the NDA, especially in the event of a close contest with actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam disrupting the scene.

It is a fact that AMMK spoiled AIADMK’s chances in the 2021 elections in about two dozen seats and Dhinakaran and OPS joining the BJP alliance in 2024 helped them push the AIADMK to the third slot in a majority of Lok Sabha seats in southern Tamil Nadu.

Will Dhinakaran help win over Mukulathors again?

Though Dhinakaran’s presence in the NDA will help the AIADMK build bridges with the community, the AMMK leader has lost many of his lieutenants and foot soldiers in the past five years, leading to possible waning of his influence among the Mukulathors.

Moreover, a good percentage of the votes that Dhinakaran secured were anti-EPS votes as Mukulathors wanted to avenge him for converting the AIADMK into a party of Gounders, the community to which he belongs.

Beyond the sidelining of community leaders in AIADMK, Mukulathors were irked by EPS’s decision as CM to provide 10.5 per cent internal reservation for Vanniyars in north Tamil Nadu, within the 20 per cent quota for most backward classes (MBC). EPS has been attempting to build bridges with the community by demanding Bharat Ratna for Thevar and naming the Madurai Airport after him.

Piramalai Kallars, a Thevar sub-sect, feared that this move would hurt them -- the law was eventually struck down by the Supreme Court. Since OPS has now joined the DMK, this sub-sect might throw its weight behind AIADMK candidates in and around Madurai, which is music to the ears of the NDA.

‘Pre-2016 era won’t repeat’

Prof K A Manikumar, who has chronicled caste violence in Southern Tamil Nadu, said the pre-2016 era of Mukulathors overwhelmingly voting for the AIADMK is over.

“In this region, the AIADMK is now seen as a Gounder party and is facing a Thevar-Gounder dichotomy as Palaniswami is viewed as a Gounder leader. The AIADMK will not get back Thevars votes entirely despite Dhinakaran’s presence in the NDA. Their votes are already split between many parties,” he added.

Political researcher Ravindran Duraisamy agreed with Manikumar. He told DH that the AIADMK will not be able to consolidate the support of Mukulathors despite EPS’ continuous outreach towards the community.

“EPS is seen as a leader of the Gounders by the politically vibrant Mukulathors, who doesn’t like to be subordinate to any other community,” Duraisamy said, adding that NTK leader S Seeman is also likely to snatch a sizeable chunk of the community votes as he plays the Mukulathors against EPS.

Manikumar also felt Dhinakaran may not have the same impact he had in the 2021 elections, especially in the Maravar-dominated regions of the composite Tirunelveli district since he has lost many of his lieutenants and foot soldiers.

Who will Mukulathor youth vote for?

Prof. Ramu Manivannan, former head of the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Madras, is of the opinion that 30 per cent of Mukulathors’ votes will still go to the AIADMK due to legacy affinity for MGR and Jayalalithaa.

“But the point is acute divisions will take place and the DMK will gain from this,” Manivannan said. However, Manikumar feels since the community has no natural affinity towards the DMK, youth votes of the community might gravitate towards the TVK, much like when Vijayakanth contested his first election in 2006.

“Vijay will certainly make inroads into the Thevar voters, especially among youngsters who have enrolled as voters only to vote for him. I also believe first-time voters across caste lines and college girls might vote for Vijay,” Manikumar added.

But Manivannan disputes Manikumar on Vijay’s impact. He Manivannan argued that Vijay cannot be compared to Vijayakanth and his constituency is not based on community identity, but rather on youth who are dissatisfied with both the DMK and AIADMK and are seeking change.

He also dismissed the suggestion that the trio – OPS, TTV, and Sasikala – controlling the Mukulathor vote bank as a “well-constructed myth.” “These are individuals who are or were controlled by the BJP. These leaders survive on external power,” he said.