Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026: AIADMK defends fortress as DMK poses challenge

SALEM: Despite a 10-year anti-incumbency, the AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) pulled off an impressive show in western Tamil Nadu — or Kongu Nadu — by winning 33 of the region's 50 seats in the 2021 Assembly polls.

It was underperformance in this region that prevented the DMK from winning Tamil Nadu by a landslide five years ago. 

This April 23 election, the stakes are high for both the ruling DMK and the AIADMK-BJP, with popular actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) making inroads into several areas, turning the fight triangular.

For the DMK, the election is particularly significant: It has focused on the region by identifying fresh talents and bringing in a brilliant organiser like V Senthil Balaji to win people’s trust.

Besides defending the citadel — where the BJP has also grown significantly, especially during the four-year tenure of K Annamalai as its state-unit chief — the NDA wants to better its 2021 tally by cashing in on anti-incumbency against the DMK regime.

The combine has put up a united show in this region, particularly with AIADMK candidates getting Annamalai to campaign for them. The NDA also has an advantage here, with its chief-ministerial candidate Edappadi K Palaniswami hailing from the region and belonging to the entrepreneurial Gounder community.

For the TVK, Vijay is the USP. An added advantage is former AIADMK veteran K A Sengottaiyan, who is now the TVK coordinator for the region. He is banking on his experience and Vijay’s massive fanbase to make inroads into his former party's bastion.

The TVK is expected to do well in pockets like Tiruppur, a film-crazy town that once boasted 36 cinema theatres, and in areas where Scheduled Tribes hold the key.

The party has also been reaching out to Dalits, but one of the challenges before it is to ensure the last-mile connectivity to its vote base. 

Though the DMK and the Congress won 17 seats in 2021, the alliance performed quite poorly in urban centres — winning only one seat in Salem and none in Coimbatore.

This time, too, the fight is quite intense between the DMK and the AIADMK-BJP in almost every constituency.

The ruling party has challenged the Opposition alliance in its stronghold of Coimbatore by fielding Senthil Balaji from the industrial city.   

While Balaji is confident of delivering the Karur district despite former AIADMK minister M R Vijayabaskar putting up a strong resistance in the city seat, the ruling alliance is hoping to win seats in the Salem, Erode, and Namakkal districts.   

Caste plays a major role in this region, with both the DMK and the AIADMK actively wooing Gounders and Arunthathiyars — a sub-sect of Dalits spread across the region.

Meanwhile, the BJP feels it can perform well this time, despite facing criticism that it didn’t field young leaders like Annamalai in the elections. The AIADMK demonstrated its dominance in the region by allotting the saffron party only a handful of seats in the region.  

On the other side, the DMK believes its ground infrastructure overhaul in the last few years, welfare schemes targeting women, and the infrastructure push in cities like Coimbatore will help it. However, the electricity tariff hike could hurt its prospects, with the region home to several MSMEs.

Prof Ramu Manivannan, former head of the University of Madras' Department of Politics and Public Administration, told DH that the contest would be multi-cornered, and that the DMK was not as strong in western TN as it was in the state's North.

“The DMK will perform better than in the 2021 polls, and it is aware of the traditional strength of its prime challenger, the AIADMK. The election will be very tough for the AIADMK and the BJP. The importance accorded to Senthil Balaji certainly makes a difference for DMK,” he said.

As for the TVK’s impact, the professor said that, except for Sengottaiyan’s manoeuvring, it remains to be seen how much TVK can make inroads into the vote banks of existing parties.