The Sunday Story | The I.N.D.I.A. bloc and the fight for first place

While Congress and its allies have a symbiotic relationship, it is not without tensions.

New Delhi: Ahead of the Winter session of Parliament, as parties got down to finalising sitting arrangements in the Lok Sabha, Congress floor managers were surprised to find some I.N.D.I.A. bloc leaders negotiating separately with the treasury benches for front-row benches.

A few days later, the Congress leadership noticed Trinamool Congress’ (TMC) absence in the anti-Adani demonstration outside Parliament. Rahul Gandhi broached the matter with TMC leaders in the Lok Sabha, who feigned ignorance about a joint protest.

The winter chill had clearly set in a tad too soon in the Opposition ranks after the warmth and camaraderie on display during the Monsoon session.

“The Haryana and Maharashtra debacle have taken the Congress back to pre-June 4 position,” remarked an Opposition MP from the south. What Congress least expected was that embers of resentment would, in no time, turn into a full-blown challenge to its leadership of the INDIA bloc, with West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee throwing down the gauntlet.

“Well, if the father loses his job, it’s likely that the children would soon start complaining. Had we won Haryana and Maharashtra, things would have been different,” a senior Congress general secretary observed, referring to the Congress’ sub-par performance in the two recent Assembly polls where the party was expected to do well.

In politics, nothing succeeds like an electoral success. But there is also a palpable feeling among INDIA bloc allies that after the Lok Sabha polls, Congress did not do enough to hold the Opposition alliance together. The elections to the 18th Lok Sabha engendered a hung house. A day after the results were announced on June 4, INDIA bloc leaders met in Delhi, where the constituents resolved to take appropriate steps at the appropriate time, given people’s “desire not to be ruled by the BJP”.

The numbers were such that the BJP was forced to stitch a coalition government. Congress’ tally touched one less than 100, giving Rahul Gandhi his first shot at the Leader of Opposition post.

And then, that was that.

INDIA bloc meetings were confined to floor leader coordination in Rajya Sabha LoP and Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge’s chamber in the Parliament, that too, when the Houses were in session.

The Congress probably felt that the tailwinds of the LS polls were enough to glide it to power in poll-bound states, especially when the party had posted a good performance with its allies in Maharashtra and Haryana. Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir looked tough, but a pre-poll tie-up with Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the National Conference opened up possibilities for a reversal of fortune.

The focus, for the Congress, thus shifted to electioneering in the two states.

“There was a presumption that a repeat of the LS performance would only consolidate and cement the party’s position as numero uno in the Opposition ranks. There was no meeting of INDIA bloc leaders after June,” says Rasheed Kidwai, who has authored a book on former Congress President Sonia Gandhi.

In October, Congress’ hard landing in Haryana engendered murmurs on the party’s extraordinary ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A month later, the crash landing in Maharashtra further emboldened allies to broach the unresolved leadership issues.

Congress’ discomfort after the recent round of Assembly polls was only accentuated by the fact that the INDIA bloc was able to get the better of the NDA in states where the alliance was piloted by non-Congress regional party leaders — Hemant Soren in Jharkhand and Omar Abdullah in Jammu and Kashmir.

The unresolved issue

The leadership issue came up for discussion when the INDIA bloc was in a precocious state. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had taken the lead in bringing all non-NDA parties on board by organising the first meeting in Patna in June 2023.

Exasperated by the alliance’s inability to declare a leader and a political agenda, Nitish Kumar returned to the NDA fold — with bag and baggage. Mamata Banerjee’s proposal to nominate Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge as the Opposition’s PM candidate evoked a radio silence from the Congress.

So, the Opposition entered the electoral field, not as a cohesive entity. Need-based and state-specific alliances were formalised at the last minute against a spirited NDA, led by Narendra Modi riding the Ram temple inauguration wave.

But, like life, the vicissitudes of politics can throw up unexpected outcomes. The ‘Save Constitution’ campaign struck a chord among the marginalised sections of the electorate to whittle down BJP’s strength in the LS below the halfway mark.

Congress, having almost doubled its seats, could for the first time demonstrate its ability to add value to its allies’ kitty. The Samajwadi Party gained in UP, and so did Sharad Pawar and Shiv Sena -UBT in Maharashtra.

However, with Congress cozily ensconced in the prime Opposition post, political engagement with smaller parties did not extend beyond seat-sharing talks in poll-bound states. This switch-on-switch-off attitude was soon to have repercussions.

Common interests guide political parties in an alliance. Contradictions pull them apart. With acquisition of power as the ultimate goal, each one, at any given time, plays many parts.

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is sitting pretty on the traditional Congress and the Left vote. A strong Congress in Delhi can always rejuvenate the party in Bengal. That would be at TMC’s cost.

Similarly, in UP, Akhilesh and Congress are allies. They are also competitors for the anti-BJP vote. In Bihar too, Lalu’s RJD competes for the same political space.

Rahul Gandhi’s strident position on caste census and reservations is a reiteration of the social justice plank associated with the Mandal parties. His non-negotiable line against the BJP and the RSS burnishes Congress’ credentials in the ‘secular’ space.

A strong Congress impinges on the political space carved out by non-NDA regional parties in their respective states. Everyone needs Congress, but a weak Congress they would prefer.

Congress’ USP

Hours after Bihar CM Nitish Kumar announced his decision to leave the INDIA bloc to join NDA, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav unilaterally offered 11 out of 80 seats to the Congress in UP.

“The offer was also a message to the minority community that the party was willing to go the extra mile to keep the Opposition vote intact,” said an SP leader, who was privy to the negotiations.

The alliance was finalised a few notches above SP’s initial offer and benefitted both Akhilesh Yadav and Congress, who together won 43 seats.

Former Union Minister and BJP leader Arun Jaitley once borrowed iconic Bollywood actor Ajit’s ‘liquid oxygen’ dialogue to illustrate the importance of Congress for regional parties in the Opposition bloc.

“The Congress oxygen would not let them expire and liquid would not let them survive,” he would quip.

Jokes apart, Congress, with its pan-India influence remains the critical fulcrum in the non-BJP political space. Ideologically, it has positioned itself as a credible challenger to the BJP and the RSS. And, as in 2024, it has on numerous occasions demonstrated its ability to bounce back to power. INDIA allies need Congress too, but only as much as it could help them climb the hill.

As Didi questioned Congress’ ability to lead the INDIA bloc, other allies like Lalu Yadav and Omar Abdullah chimed in. Sources say, Congress leadership advised party leaders not to respond to any provocation. This too shall pass, was the message from the high command.

Just then, the Ambedkar controversy erupted in Parliament forcing allies to once again rally behind the grand old party.