Kanpur, Prayagraj at risk of severe damage if powerful quake strikes: IIT study

Kanpur (UP): A 17-year study by the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur (IIT-K) has warned that parts of Kanpur and Prayagraj could face severe damage if an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher strikes the region.

The research led by Dr Nihar Ranjan Patra, a professor at IIT-K’s civil engineering department, highlights the high liquefaction potential of the alluvial soil along the Ganga river belt -- a factor that can sharply amplify ground shaking and destabilise buildings.

The IIT-K research team analysed soil samples collected over nearly two decades from Gujarat, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Samples were taken from 43 locations, with boreholes drilled up to 30 to 40 metres and 80 metres deep at two locations in Kanpur and Prayagraj in select areas — far deeper than the usual 10–30 metres used elsewhere.

In several parts of Kanpur and Prayagraj, the top 8–10 metres of soil is loose, sandy and water-saturated — conditions highly prone to liquefaction during strong tremors.

The findings are concerning as in some pockets, the effect could extend as deep as 30-40 metres.

Liquefaction occurs when intense shaking causes waterlogged soil to temporarily lose strength and behave like a liquid, Patra told PTI.

Buildings can tilt or sink, roads and railway tracks may crack, and underground utilities can rupture. Riverbank and low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable, he added.

Localities identified for detailed soil analysis include Bithoor, Mandhana, Panki, Barra, Chakeri, Ratanlal Nagar, Naramao and areas around IIT-K, among others.

Parts of Varanasi were also found to have similar soil behaviour.

According to India’s seismic zoning map, sections of Kanpur and Prayagraj fall under Zones III and IV — denoting moderate to high risk.

While Uttar Pradesh is not in the country’s highest seismic zone, experts caution that the Indo-Gangetic plains remain vulnerable due to deep alluvial deposits and their proximity to tectonic activity in the Himalayan belt.

The study flags rapid urbanisation, high-rise construction without detailed soil investigation, and weak enforcement of building codes as major concerns.

Older structures and buildings not designed to earthquake-resistant standards could face the greatest damage in a major quake, it said.

Patra has recommended mandatory soil testing before construction, strict adherence to seismic design codes, and retrofitting of vulnerable public buildings such as hospitals, schools and government offices.

He also stressed the use of earthquake hazard maps during urban planning — a practice common in several countries but rarely enforced in India.

While earthquakes cannot be predicted with precision, the study underlines that preparedness can significantly reduce casualties and losses.