WB Assembly Elections 2026 | BJP eyes breach of TMC’s south Bengal fortress amid SIR shadow

Kolkata: When West Bengal votes in the second and final phase of the assembly elections on Wednesday, it will not only be choosing 142 MLAs across the state’s political heartland, but also will be deciding whether the TMC still holds its southern fortress or the BJP has finally found a road to the state secretariat, Nabanna.

If the first phase on April 23 tested whether the BJP could retain its traditional edge in north Bengal and adjoining districts, the final round shifts the battle decisively to the TMC’s home turf - Kolkata, Howrah, North and South 24 Parganas, Nadia, Hooghly and Purba Bardhaman.

The stakes are blunt. Of the 142 seats going to polls, the TMC had won 123 in 2021, the BJP just 18 and the ISF one.

Despite the BJP’s aggressive push five years ago, Mamata Banerjee’s party swept south Bengal and retained control of the state with ease.

The verdict reinforced a familiar axiom: without breaking south Bengal, there is no road to Nabanna.

At the symbolic centre of this phase stands Bhabanipur - Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s political refuge and the BJP’s chosen psychological battleground, where she faces Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari in what many here call the “mother of all electoral contests”.

For the BJP, phase two is not merely the final round - it is the real test of whether anti-incumbency, corruption charges and citizenship politics can breach the ruling party’s strongest wall.

For the TMC, holding this belt means the road to a fourth straight term remains firmly open.

“This has always been our strongest zone. In 2021 and even in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, people here stood with us. If we retain this belt, Bengal stays with Mamata Banerjee,” a senior TMC leader said.

A BJP state leader countered: “Without breaking south Bengal, there is no route to power for us. North 24 Parganas, Kolkata and Howrah are the real battlegrounds. This is where change has to happen.” The geography explains the urgency. North 24 Parganas alone has 33 seats, South 24 Parganas 31, Howrah 16, Nadia 17, Hooghly 18, Purba Bardhaman 16, while Kolkata’s 11 seats remain symbolically the most prestigious.

North and South 24 Parganas remain the heart of that contest — what state politicians often call the “Uttar Pradesh of Bengal’s electoral map”, the twin districts whose electoral weight can make or unmake power at Nabanna.

In 2021, the TMC won all 11 seats in Kolkata, all 16 in Howrah, 30 of 31 in South 24 Parganas, 28 of 33 in North 24 Parganas, 14 of 18 in Hooghly and eight of 17 in Nadia. The BJP’s principal gains came in North 24 Parganas and Nadia, powered largely by Matua and refugee votes, the citizenship debate and anti-incumbency against the ruling party.

That arithmetic explains why top BJP leaders spent the campaign’s final stretch almost entirely in these districts.

The BJP top brass addressed rallies and roadshows, mixing sharp attacks on corruption, infiltration, post-poll violence and women’s safety with symbolic outreach at the Matua Thakurbari in Bongaon.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s statement that Central Armed Police Forces would remain in Bengal for 60 days after polling was widely read through the prism of the 2021 post-poll violence, when allegations of murders, arson, assaults and displacement of opposition workers dominated the political discourse.

Political observers said the message was aimed at reassuring anti-TMC voters that post-poll reprisals would not follow if they voted against the ruling party.

The TMC dismissed it as fear politics, accusing the BJP of trying to run Bengal from Delhi and weaponising central agencies and institutions.

The TMC has responded with welfare politics and identity, and framed the election as a fight to protect “Bengal’s rights”, warning that the BJP’s endgame remained "NRC and social division".

After phase one recorded 93.19 per cent polling - the highest ever in the state - Banerjee claimed the TMC had already crossed the 100-seat mark.

But the sharpest battle is unfolding on voter lists. The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has turned deletions into perhaps the most politically sensitive issue of phase two.

North 24 Parganas lost over 12.6 lakh names, South 24 Parganas over 10.91 lakh, Kolkata nearly 6.97 lakh, Howrah around six lakh, Hooghly 4.68 lakh and Nadia about 4.85 lakh.

In at least 25 constituencies, deleted names exceed the previous victory margin. The TMC alleges targeted deletions aimed at minorities, migrants and poor Bengali-speaking voters. The BJP argues bogus names and illegal infiltration had distorted the rolls for years.

Political observers said that where margins are thinner than deleted names, SIR can alter not only results, but the post-election narrative itself.

However, Bhabanipur remains the prestige seat within that larger battle. It is effectively a rematch of Nandigram, where Adhikari defeated Banerjee in 2021. Five years later, the duel has shifted to the TMC supremo's own bastion.

For the TMC, retaining Bhabanipur is about protecting Banerjee’s authority in her backyard. For the BJP, breaching it would puncture the aura of invincibility around Bengal’s most powerful leader.

Spread across eight Kolkata Municipal Corporation wards, Bhabanipur is often called “mini India” - Bengalis, Gujaratis, Marwaris, Jains, Sikhs, Muslims, and migrants from Bihar and Jharkhand packed into the prestigious seat.

Banerjee has focused unusual personal attention here — padayatras, closed-door meetings in high-rises, outreach to Jain temples and Sikh gurdwaras, and direct canvassing among non-Bengali voters.

Adhikari, after polling in Nandigram, shifted his full focus to Bhabanipur with Amit Shah closely monitoring the campaign from Kolkata. Adding to the pressure, around 51,000 names, nearly 25 per cent of the electorate, were deleted after the SIR.

By Wednesday evening, voting will end, but the answer will wait till May 4 - whether the BJP has done enough to turn north Bengal’s momentum into a statewide breakthrough, or Banerjee has once again sealed the south and with it, the road to Nabanna for a fourth consecutive term.