West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 | Beyond CAA-NRC, SIR emerges as new axis of polarisation in state

Kolkata: Communal polarisation in West Bengal is acquiring a sharper edge ahead of the 2026 assembly polls, moving beyond campaign rhetoric into sustained street-level mobilisation, with the SIR exercise emerging as a key flashpoint in the state’s shifting identity politics.

The convergence of the roll revision process and a deeper ideological churn is recasting the electoral battlefield into a layered contest - where voter arithmetic intersects with identity mobilisation.

Unlike 2021, when the faultlines were drawn around the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the NRC, the emerging contest is now anchored in an issue - determining who qualifies as a voter.

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR), along with recurring themes of “infiltration” and “minority appeasement”, is transforming polarisation from campaign rhetoric into a direct battle over electoral legitimacy.

During the SIR exercise, nearly 64 lakh names have so far been deleted from electoral rolls, with several lakh more under scrutiny- a scale that has unsettled political calculations and injected volatility into closely contested seats.

In nearly 90 assembly segments, leading margins in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls were under 10,000 votes — often lower than the number of deletions reported during the revision — making the exercise politically consequential.

The BJP has framed the revision as a necessary “electoral correction”, linking it to concerns over illegal immigration and demographic change, particularly in border districts.

“Illegal immigration and demographic changes in border districts are real concerns. These issues affect the identity and security of the state,” Union minister Sukanta Majumdar said.

The TMC, however, has mounted a sharp counter, alleging that the exercise risks disenfranchising genuine voters, particularly minorities, and is being politically weaponised.

“The BJP wants to take away the voting rights of the minorities and go to the polls. We will not allow polarisation for electoral gain,” TMC leader Firhad Hakim said.

Murshidabad alone has over 11 lakh voters under adjudication, the highest in the state, followed by Malda with around 8.3 lakh. In North 24 Parganas, about 5.9 lakh voters remain under scrutiny, while South 24 Parganas has around 5.2 lakh such cases. These districts witnessed around 23 lakh deletions.

Yet, the SIR is only one layer of a broader structural shift -the evolution of polarisation itself. What was largely campaign-driven rhetoric in 2021 is now manifesting as sustained, grassroots mobilisation across districts, visible as much on the streets as in speeches.

This shift is evident in the expansion of religious processions such as Ram Navami, which have grown from localised events into large-scale public mobilisations with increasing organisational depth, turning religious observance into a form of pre-election signalling.

“In 2021, polarisation peaked during campaigns. What we are witnessing now is a more permanent, ground-level mobilisation, and SIR has amplified this shift,” said political analyst Suman Bhattacharya.

The transition reflects a deeper change in Bengal’s political grammar- from class-based mobilisation rooted in Left-era trade unions and peasant movements to a more fragmented, identity-driven landscape anchored in religion, culture and citizenship.

“In effect, a bureaucratic exercise has acquired political overtones, reinforcing narratives of illegal immigration on one side and minority insecurity on the other,” said political analyst Moidul Islam.

The political consequences of this shift are already visible in voter behaviour. In 2021, Muslims — roughly 30 per cent of the population - consolidated behind the TMC, helping it sweep districts such as Murshidabad, Malda, Birbhum and South 24 Parganas, aided by the collapse of the Left and Congress.

Ahead of 2026, signs of churn are emerging. Smaller outfits such as the Indian Secular Front (ISF) and new formations led by leaders like Humayun Kabir are attempting to carve out an independent Muslim political space.

Yet, the SIR controversy appears to be producing a countervailing trend, with concerns over voter deletion and citizenship pushing sections of minority voters back towards the TMC.

The BJP is banking on the consolidation of Hindu votes, driven by both identity mobilisation and anti-incumbency. Analysts say over 100 seats could be influenced by how this twin consolidation - minority regrouping and majority consolidation - unfolds.

The impact is most pronounced in border districts such as North 24 Parganas, Nadia, Malda and Murshidabad, where migration and demographic anxieties have long shaped political behaviour. Here, the contest is no longer just about governance or welfare, but about voter legitimacy.

The BJP appears to be recalibrating its approach. Unlike the high-decibel polarisation of 2021, its current strategy reflects a more measured tone, blending identity mobilisation with broader political messaging.

“This is not communal politics. What we are seeing is a cultural awakening,” a senior BJP leader said.

The TMC, for its part, is attempting to retain minority support while reaching out to Hindu voters through symbolic and policy gestures. From projects such as the Jagannath temple in Digha to broader cultural messaging, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has sought to counter the BJP’s narrative without alienating her core base.

Political scientist Biswanath Chakraborty described this as “a delicate balancing act with risks on both sides”. “There is always the danger of appearing like a diluted version of the BJP while trying to expand appeal,” he said.

Taken together, the SIR and the surge in identity mobilisation have recast Bengal’s political grammar, turning the 2026 poll into a high-stakes contest not just over governance, but over who defines the voter and mobilises the electorate.