8 million have slipped into poverty since May as US Federal aid has dried up

After an ambitious expansion of the safety net in the spring saved millions of people from poverty, the aid is now largely exhausted, and poverty has returned to levels higher than before the coronavirus crisis, two new studies have found.

The number of poor people has grown by 8 million since May, according to researchers at Columbia University, after falling by 4 million at the pandemic’s start as a result of a $2 trillion emergency package known as the CARES Act.

Using a different definition of poverty, researchers from the University of Chicago and Notre Dame found that poverty has grown by 6 million people in the past three months, with circumstances worsening most for Black people and children.

Significantly, the studies differ on the most recent month: While the Columbia model shows an improvement in September, the Chicago and Notre Dame analysts found poverty continued to grow.

“These numbers are very concerning,” said Bruce D. Meyer, an economist at the University of Chicago and an author of the study. “They tell us people are having a lot more trouble paying their bills, paying their rent, putting food on the table.”

Underscoring those concerns, the Labor Department reported on Thursday that about 886,000 people filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week, an increase of nearly 77,000, or 9.5%, from the previous week. Adjusted for seasonal variations, the total was 898,000.

The recent rise in poverty has occurred despite an improving job market, an indiction that the economy has been rebounding too slowly to offset the lost benefits. And now the economy is showing new signs of deceleration, amid layoffs, a surge in coronavirus cases and deadlocked talks in Washington over new stimulus.

The Democratic House has twice passed multitrillion-dollar packages to provide more help and to stimulate the economy, but members of a divided Republican Senate, questioning the cost and necessity, have proposed smaller plans.

President Donald Trump has alternately demanded that Congress “go big” before the elections and canceled negotiations. On Thursday, he signaled he was ready to increase the size of previous White House offers, to accommodate Democrats, only to be rebuffed hours later by Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. and the Senate majority leader.