Joe Biden, with strong polls, may have more at stake in the debate

On television and radio, the Biden campaign spent $48 million over the last week, while the Trump campaign spent about $20.7 million, according to Advertising Analytics, an ad tracking firm. The Biden campaign has a similar advantage on Facebook, where it spent $5.4 million over the past week while the Trump team spent $3.7 million on the platform.

The Biden campaign reported $466 million cash on hand entering September together with the Democratic Party, compared with $325 million for the Trump campaign and the Republicans. That is a stark reversal from the spring, when the president had a large cash advantage.

A New York Times/Siena College poll this past week found Joe Biden closing the gap on President Donald Trump in three states that voted decisively for Trump in 2016: Iowa, Georgia and Texas. Biden was up by 3 percentage points among likely voters in Iowa, tied with Trump in Georgia and down by 3 in Texas. (All of those spreads were within the margin of error.)

The results in all three of those states reflected Biden’s lopsided advantage among women, who chose him over Trump by anywhere from 8 to 13 points.

A Debate FaceOff and a Court Showdown

Two events now have the potential to shift a steady race: Trump’s announcement Saturday of Judge Amy Coney Barrett as the replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court, and the first general election debate Tuesday night. Trump may well place a third justice on the nation’s highest court, cementing his legacy for a generation. But the politics of doing so won't necessarily help him in the near term.

The loss of a feminist icon and her seat could be a motivating force for Democratic voters, much as the death of Justice Antonin Scalia in 2016 was for Republicans. The upcoming confirmation battle will also put abortion and the Affordable Care Act back in the spotlight, which risks alienating older Americans and moderate suburban voters the president has been trying to woo while energizing younger, progressive Democrats who had more enthusiasm for Ginsburg than they do for Biden.

It’s not clear that the replacement pick will be as big a factor for Republicans who have already hitched their wagons to Trump. So far, the death of Ginsburg didn’t appear to have affected the presidential race in Texas, Iowa and Georgia. One upside for Trump: The Senate confirmation battle will give him a story line to compete with his least favorite subject, his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

The debate, meanwhile, is a stage where the president, trailing steadily for months by 7 to 8 points in public polls, has the best shot at shaking up the dynamic of the race. It’s also a high-stakes moment for Biden, a candidate who is barely seen on the campaign trail. But Trump has aided him by lowering expectations of his performance.

Trump’s Big Reveal Doesn’t Surprise Many

“I will be announcing my Supreme Court Nominee on Saturday, at the White House!” Trump tweeted earlier this week, with his reality TV showman’s appetite for a big reveal. Except there was little doubt to a process in which he didn’t interview any other candidates. The president’s selection of Barrett leaked 24 hours before his official announcement.

Trump interviewed Barrett when he ultimately chose Justice Brett Kavanaugh to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy in 2018. At the time, he told aides he wanted to save Barrett, a former law professor the president named to a federal appeals court, as his female replacement for Ginsburg. As much as Trump tried to keep some mystery surrounding his process, there was very little, and everyone involved was preparing for one name only.

The push for a Florida judge never got off the ground: Some of Trump’s campaign aides and advisers in the most critical of battleground states, Florida, were pushing him to consider Barbara Lagoa, a Cuban American judge on the 11th US Circuit Court of Appeals. But even her boosters admitted Trump’s mind was made up and there was close to zero chance he would choose someone he had never even met on the rushed timetable he was working under — even if her selection promised to help him in a must win state. White House officials, meanwhile, were pushing for Barrett all along.

Barrett is already making moves: Capitol Hill staff members were already planning for the arrival of her longtime friend Nicole Stelle Garnett, a professor at Notre Dame Law School, who they expect will be her top adviser through the confirmation process, early in the week.

The campaign tried to fundraise off a reality show style reveal: “This is your opportunity to be the FIRST to know who President Trump nominates to be the next Supreme Court Justice of the United States,” a campaign email on Friday said, contending that Trump has been working “around the clock to find the most qualified, conservative constitutionalist to fill the vacant seat.” In fact, he didn’t interview anyone else.

Does the First Debate Mean More for Biden?

This week, members of Trump’s campaign and some media observers tried to draw attention to Biden’s light public schedule, considering the former vice president has been in debate prep and is not doing many public events. But the week of preparation belies an underlying truth: There may be more at stake in Tuesday’s debate for the Democratic challenger than the president. Republicans have spent months denigrating Biden’s mental fitness, an attack that has managed to lower expectations in some public appearances.

Still, Biden faces significant pressure to perform. Consider this:

He comes in with a lead: The consistency and breadth of polling have so far made clear that Biden enters the first debate with an edge. While incumbent presidents often have advantages in reelection races, Biden’s favorable polling alters the power dynamics of the contest. It’s Biden who will be seeking to maintain his lead, reassuring voters who trust him over the current president that their instincts are correct. If he fails to satisfy them, it could be Biden who receives rough reviews Tuesday night.

Trump is a known quantity: The 2020 election has been framed as a referendum on Trump, and Biden’s campaign has leaned into that. However, after four years with Trump occupying the political spotlight, many voters have a firm view of his temperament and stage conduct. In the debate, it’s Biden who has to reaffirm his image as a steady hand.

The ghost of 2012: Biden knows firsthand the impact of a poor first debate. In 2012, President Barack Obama was caught off guard by his challenger, Mitt Romney, briefly throwing the Obamatilting race into sudden uncertainty. For his part, Biden delivered strong performances for Obama in vice presidential debates in 2008 and 2012, but he will come into Tuesday’s event with a lesson from his presidential sherpa: Don’t take anything for granted.

Trump’s Debate Task: Caricature Biden

For months, Trump and Republicans have been trying to convince Americans that Joe Biden is something other than Joe Biden. He is, in their telling, a vessel for a more radical set of progressives seeking to upend the country. And they’ve made him out to be a doddering elder who is unable to handle the rigors of the campaign trail and the presidency.

So far, Biden has shrugged off the attacks. But in this debate, Trump’s task will be to corner his opponent on those topics, convincing persuadable and swing voters that the campaign’s alarms about Biden have been justified. Here are three ways the president might try:

Attack Biden’s Senate record: The crime bills of the 1980s and 1990s, along with issues like free trade, international relations and Supreme Court confirmations including Biden’s handling of the allegations made by Anita Hill, are all areas in which Biden has been pressed by the news media and by opponents since announcing his presidential run. Biden also has a personal investment in defending his record, and has rarely admitted any wrongdoing even as his allies say that he has evolved. On the debate stage, Trump can seek to exploit this disconnect — Biden the candidate who strains to admit error and a Senate record that is out of step with many of the country’s biggest issues.

Consider nothing off-limits: The former vice president should be prepared for Trump to bring up anything and everything, including some of the topics Biden has rarely spoken about in person. This could include the sexual assault allegation against Biden by a former Senate aide, or personal details about Biden’s family. The conservative media outlets that often reflect Trump’s thinking have put a particular spotlight on Hunter Biden, Biden’s son who once served on several international boards.

Escalate the ad hominems: Unlike in his 2016 run, when Trump took pride in branding his opponents, he has not settled on a consistent nickname — or attack — against Biden. Last week he took an audible poll at his rally in Wisconsin, asking attendees to shout if they preferred “Sleepy Joe” or “Slow Joe.” This will not stop him from trying. Trump has tried to run a campaign on Biden’s character, while his opponent has tried to stay laser focused on issues such as the coronavirus pandemic. Those approaches will clash on Tuesday.

Also This Past Week

Only 17 per cent of absentee ballot requests have been from Republicans. The low percentage could be related to several things, however, Trump’s false claims about election fraud may be undercutting his party’s own longstanding efforts on absentee voting in swing states.

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are in legal battles over ballot deadlines; there are lawsuits pending in Pennsylvania and Ohio about drop boxes, and in Michigan, there are disputes on whether voters can fix their absentee ballots.

More than 38 million eligible voters have disabilities — that’s more than 16 per cent of the electorate — and even though voting is more accessible because of the pandemic, a large number of disabled voters will still be unable to vote.