<p class="title">US President Donald Trump on Tuesday insisted that recession, a potentially dangerous blow to his reelection next year, is not in the cards. But he indicated he's preparing just in case.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"I think the word recession is inappropriate," Trump told reporters in the White House. "We're very far from recession."</p>.<p class="bodytext">With approval ratings consistently below 50 percent and polls showing him getting thumped by potential Democratic candidates, Trump enters the 2020 campaign season facing significant headwinds -- except on the economy.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Growth has been on the upside for a decade now and Trump happily takes credit for low unemployment and what he repeatedly claims to be "the hottest" economy in the world.</p>.<p class="bodytext">But he doesn't want to discuss accumulating evidence of bad news.</p>.<p class="bodytext">An alarm bell went off in the US Treasury bond market last week when 10-year bond yields briefly fell below the yields offered on a two year-bond -- the inverse of what normally happens.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The so-called "inverted yield curve" is a statistical phenomenon that has previously been an accurate herald of eventual recession.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Add in growing fears of fallout from the US-China trade war and Germany's own recession warning, plus Britain's Brexit chaos, and suddenly the "R" word has become a regular part of the conversation.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Unless your name is Donald Trump.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Just on Tuesday morning, he tweeted or retweeted more than a dozen boasts about the booming economy.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"#Trump has this Economy humming like a fine-tuned engine," one of the retweets claimed while crediting the President with "Super Human-like Energy."</p>.<p class="bodytext">In extensive comments to reporters, Trump piled on the superlatives, saying the "incredible" economy was doing "fantastically" and was "number one in the world."</p>.<p class="bodytext">Trump, though, is spooked.</p>.<p class="bodytext">How can you tell? He's already blaming people for the recession he says won't happen.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Target number one is the Federal Reserve, which Trump, in one of his many breaks with convention, has been browbeating for months over its reluctance to cut interest rates.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Last week, the president branded Fed chief Jerome Powell "clueless," and tweeted in all caps: "CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!"</p>.<p class="bodytext">On Tuesday, he insisted that a deep rate cut would unleash "a tremendous spurt of growth."</p>.<p class="bodytext">Villain number two is the US media, which Trump and his aides accuse of trying to whip up recession fears deliberately to hurt him.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"They're pushing a recession lie. The fact is, so many on the left want these horrible things to be true," Trump deputy spokesman Hogan Gidley said on Fox News Tuesday.</p>.<p class="bodytext">A survey by the National Association for Business Economics on Monday showed that 72 percent of economists believe there'll be a downturn before the end of 2021, with about half of them predicting the recession for 2020, in time for Trump's reelection battle.</p>.<p class="bodytext">And despite claiming that nothing's broken, Trump confirmed Tuesday that he's rummaging around the tool box.</p>.<p class="bodytext">He told reporters he's considering a cut to capital gains taxes by indexing them to inflation.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"We've been talking about indexing for a long time and many people like indexing," he said, adding that he believes this would not require congressional approval, unlike another measure he favors -- a cut to the payroll tax.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Even then, Trump was careful to stress that this would have nothing to do with a downturn he believes will never happen.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"Whether or not we do it now, it's not being done because of recession," he said.</p>
<p class="title">US President Donald Trump on Tuesday insisted that recession, a potentially dangerous blow to his reelection next year, is not in the cards. But he indicated he's preparing just in case.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"I think the word recession is inappropriate," Trump told reporters in the White House. "We're very far from recession."</p>.<p class="bodytext">With approval ratings consistently below 50 percent and polls showing him getting thumped by potential Democratic candidates, Trump enters the 2020 campaign season facing significant headwinds -- except on the economy.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Growth has been on the upside for a decade now and Trump happily takes credit for low unemployment and what he repeatedly claims to be "the hottest" economy in the world.</p>.<p class="bodytext">But he doesn't want to discuss accumulating evidence of bad news.</p>.<p class="bodytext">An alarm bell went off in the US Treasury bond market last week when 10-year bond yields briefly fell below the yields offered on a two year-bond -- the inverse of what normally happens.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The so-called "inverted yield curve" is a statistical phenomenon that has previously been an accurate herald of eventual recession.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Add in growing fears of fallout from the US-China trade war and Germany's own recession warning, plus Britain's Brexit chaos, and suddenly the "R" word has become a regular part of the conversation.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Unless your name is Donald Trump.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Just on Tuesday morning, he tweeted or retweeted more than a dozen boasts about the booming economy.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"#Trump has this Economy humming like a fine-tuned engine," one of the retweets claimed while crediting the President with "Super Human-like Energy."</p>.<p class="bodytext">In extensive comments to reporters, Trump piled on the superlatives, saying the "incredible" economy was doing "fantastically" and was "number one in the world."</p>.<p class="bodytext">Trump, though, is spooked.</p>.<p class="bodytext">How can you tell? He's already blaming people for the recession he says won't happen.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Target number one is the Federal Reserve, which Trump, in one of his many breaks with convention, has been browbeating for months over its reluctance to cut interest rates.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Last week, the president branded Fed chief Jerome Powell "clueless," and tweeted in all caps: "CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!"</p>.<p class="bodytext">On Tuesday, he insisted that a deep rate cut would unleash "a tremendous spurt of growth."</p>.<p class="bodytext">Villain number two is the US media, which Trump and his aides accuse of trying to whip up recession fears deliberately to hurt him.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"They're pushing a recession lie. The fact is, so many on the left want these horrible things to be true," Trump deputy spokesman Hogan Gidley said on Fox News Tuesday.</p>.<p class="bodytext">A survey by the National Association for Business Economics on Monday showed that 72 percent of economists believe there'll be a downturn before the end of 2021, with about half of them predicting the recession for 2020, in time for Trump's reelection battle.</p>.<p class="bodytext">And despite claiming that nothing's broken, Trump confirmed Tuesday that he's rummaging around the tool box.</p>.<p class="bodytext">He told reporters he's considering a cut to capital gains taxes by indexing them to inflation.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"We've been talking about indexing for a long time and many people like indexing," he said, adding that he believes this would not require congressional approval, unlike another measure he favors -- a cut to the payroll tax.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Even then, Trump was careful to stress that this would have nothing to do with a downturn he believes will never happen.</p>.<p class="bodytext">"Whether or not we do it now, it's not being done because of recession," he said.</p>