The week in numbers
Less than 100 days before the election, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is stuck deep in the red. Gallup updated its approval tracker this week, showing Trump 15 points down.
His approval rating on the coronavirus is even weaker (–21), according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
A Monmouth University poll of Georgia, traditionally a red state, showed a dead heat, with Trump and Joe Biden each receiving 47% support from registered voters.
Polls of Arizona, Florida and North Carolina showed Biden with an edge in each of those states, all of which Trump won four years ago.
Biden spent $11.8 million on television ads, while Trump spent $4.7 million. Trump’s campaign pulled its TV ads for six days, briefly bringing its spending to $0 nationwide, as the new campaign manager, Bill Stepien, conducted a “review” of the ad strategy.
On Facebook, Trump again outspent Biden, roughly $4.2 million to just under $810,000.
Catch me up
If last week was billed by White House officials as a new direction for Trump — an attempt to stabilize his sinking approval rating by appearing to take the coronavirus crisis more seriously — this week is the one we all knew would inevitably follow, when his id took back the steering wheel.
Gone was the new message about the importance of wearing masks, or any sustained focus on what he claims is fast progress toward a vaccine. On Thursday, Trump suggested for the first time that the election could be delayed — a move some of his own former advisers described as a feeble attempt to get ahead of a potential loss in November.
Earlier, Trump defended his decision to retweet a claim that hydroxychloroquine was a “cure” for the virus and that masks were unnecessary.
“They’re very respected doctors,” he said, referring to a woman who has also promoted videos claiming doctors make medicine using DNA from aliens. “There was a woman who was spectacular in her statements about it, and she’s had tremendous success with it.”
And he made an appeal to white suburban voters by trying to stir up racist fears about low-income housing and the people who live there.
In short, it’s nearly four years in, and we know there’s never a new tone, just short periods of quiet before the president once again reveals his baser instincts.
Mourning Herman Cain but Avoiding Reality
This week brought the grim reality that few close to the president wanted to acknowledge: that failing to strictly follow precautions against the coronavirus, like wearing masks and practicing social distancing, could have dire personal consequences.
Herman Cain, a former Republican presidential candidate who served as a chair of Black Voices for Trump, died Thursday because of complications from the virus, weeks after attending Trump’s indoor rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma. It had been a loaded setting and date — the weekend of Juneteenth, as protests over the death of George Floyd spread across the country — and the president needed as many Black supporters in attendance as he could muster.
Trump tweeted his condolences, calling Cain “an American patriot, and great friend.” Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary, said in a statement that Cain “represented the very best of the American spirit.”
There was no nod to the reality that Cain may have put himself at greater risk because he was trying to be a good soldier for Trump. Inside the Tulsa arena, Cain posted selfies showing him sitting with other Black Trump supporters, none of whom wore masks.
It was an outcome that few in Trumpworld wanted to bear a measure of responsibility for. One campaign adviser said Thursday he hoped no one would “politicize” Cain’s death and noted that it was impossible to tell where someone might have contracted the virus. The campaign did not respond to a request for comment about Cain’s attendance at the rally.
Meanwhile, the coronavirus continues to circle Trump:
His national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, became the latest and most senior member of the administration to test positive for the coronavirus.
Kimberly Guilfoyle, the girlfriend of Trump’s eldest son and a top fundraising official for the reelection campaign, has received a clean bill of health since her positive test for the coronavirus this month. And she’s already been spotted back at the White House.
A Rarity: Obama Goes There
To describe former President Barack Obama’s public statements about his successor as carefully crafted is an understatement. Each word is considered, each jab measured exactly, as Obama balances the weight of his global prominence with his desire to let the current leaders of the Democratic Party chart their own course.
On Thursday, however, he leaned all the way in. No more flowery Medium posts.
Delivering the eulogy for John Lewis, the civil rights giant and Atlanta congressman, Obama gave his full treatise on the current political moment, laying out policy priorities and a searing critique of Trump without ever saying his name. It was the type of anti-Trump counterprogramming that many of Obama's supporters have wanted to see for years.
It also represented a soft evolution from the former president, who embraced several ideas that he had not endorsed while in the White House. Consider what he backed and his history:
Obama made a spirited call for election reforms, including making Election Day a national holiday and restoring the Voting Rights Act, which was neutered in 2013 by the Supreme Court. During his presidency, Obama at times downplayed the impact of voter suppression, focusing more on voter apathy. He has focused more on suppression efforts in recent years, as has his party.
Obama called the Senate filibuster a “Jim Crow relic,” his strongest comments against the 60-vote procedural threshold that has stopped major legislation by both parties. His words contradict then-Sen. Obama and then-President Obama, who shied from filibuster elimination efforts from the party’s progressive base. He even gained a new convert: Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont endorsed filibuster elimination after Obama’s comments, a reversal for the former presidential candidate.
On the filibuster, Obama’s transition subtly mimics Biden’s. As a longtime Delaware senator, Biden rejected the idea of eliminating the filibuster. However, in recent comments at a Democratic fundraiser, he signaled an openness if Republican obstruction precluded reforms. The Obama-Biden mind meld continues.
Veepstakes Is Finally Here (Kind Of)
At long last, the month is August — and Biden’s self-imposed time frame for a vice presidential selection — has arrived. There are only two caveats: All indications are that he is going to give himself an extension, and we are barely closer to knowing the selection — or even the finalists — than at the start of July.
Supporters of possible candidates have made public and private cases for their favorites, and Biden’s campaign has fueled speculation by holding events with several contenders. Two candidates have more recently moved toward the top of Biden’s list: Rep. Karen Bass of California and Susan Rice, the former national security adviser.
Here’s what we know (and what we don’t):
Biden’s selection will be historic. Although he made clear months ago that he would select a woman, the history-making possibility of a female vice president should not be underplayed. Given that Biden might choose a woman of color, the glass ceiling could crack two times over.
Biden wants a governing partner So much is made about what the selection could mean for the November outcome, but that is likely not the most important factor. Biden saw himself as a complementary piece to Obama’s administration and will be looking for someone with whom he has a personal rapport. Much of his decision will come down to things that are hard to quantify in strictly political terms. It’s more vibes than science.
Biden will be shaping future primaries. It is unclear whether Biden’s choice will shape the race against Trump, but the selection could have an imprint on Democratic presidential politics going forward. If Biden wins, his vice president will have a huge national platform to define and expand her political brand, much as Biden did under Obama. This could put her in pole position to dominate the party’s more moderate wing after Biden. Being No. 2 is a low-risk, high-reward position, particularly for someone who would be the first woman ever to hold the office.
What You Might Have Missed
Rice once considered running against Sen. Susan Collins of Maine. Now she’s a candidate to be Biden’s running mate. If she doesn’t get chosen, she’s still open to running for office — maybe even for Senate in Washington, D.C., if it were granted statehood.
Biden released the fourth piece of his “Build Back Better” economic proposal, an effort to show that racial justice is integral to his policy vision. It promises to “leverage more than $150 billion in new capital and opportunities for small businesses that have been structurally excluded for generations.”
Trump faces several problems in Michigan, a state he carried in 2016 by only 10,704 votes. His campaign has now pulled ads from the state’s airwaves almost entirely.
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