AIADMK’s alliance is one stone for LS polls, stability

The rainbow alliance stitched by AIADMK is not just aimed at the Lok Sabha elections due in May but is part of its larger plan to ensure that the Edappadi K Palaniswami government survives till the end of its tenure in 2021.

Inclusion of the PMK and a few other outfits, apart from the BJP and DMDK, in the alliance is on the understanding that they will support the AIADMK in the by-elections to 21 Assembly constituencies — expected to be held along with Lok Sabha polls — is a clear display of political acumen by Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami.

The by-polls are very crucial for the AIADMK since the results hold the potential to send the government packing — the Edappadi administration is surviving on a wafer-thin majority and if the party does not win five to ten seats, it might lose power.

Every vote counts for Palaniswami since the ruling party is set to face a double-barrel gun attack from the formidable DMK and rebel T T V Dhinakaran.

Dhinakaran, nephew of jailed AIADMK leader V K Sasikala, trounced the AIADMK and DMK by winning the R K Nagar by-polls in 2017 which makes him a potential threat to the ruling party since he is sure to eat into its traditional vote bank.

PMK, which has a dedicated vote bank of 5 percentage, could tilt the game in favour of the AIADMK in at least eight assembly seats in northern Tamil Nadu. If the results are in favour of the AIADMK, the government would survive till 2021.

By giving seven Lok Sabha seats and one Rajya Sabha berth to the PMK and eliciting its support for the by-polls in return, the AIADMK has shed its reluctance and declared its intention to fight the by-polls.

The party had deferred the by-polls by citing one reason or the other — it even got the Chief Secretary to write a letter last year seeking postponement of by-elections citing monsoon rains.

“Everything is connected to the survival of the AIADMK Government. There is nothing to be tested before the people because the government’s credentials have been proven very well. To say that the government is facing anti-incumbency is just an understatement,” Prof Ramu Manivannan, Head of the department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Madras, told DH.

As far as the Lok Sabha polls are concerned, the alliance looks formidable on the face of it with more than half-a-dozen parties being its constituents and pose a challenge to the DMK-Congress combine, but the larger question is whether the AIADMK-PMK-BJP combine can duck the “double anti-incumbency” of Narendra Modi and Edappadi dispensations.

The anti-Modi sentiments seem to be at its peak with netizens erupting in protest by trending GoBackModi hashtags, showing of black flags and letting out black balloons every time the Prime Minister steps onto Tamil Nadu soil. The AIADMK Government too has become unpopular – it is widely believed that the EPS administration survives only due to the blessings of the BJP.

The fact that the AIADMK, which had kept both BJP and Congress at equidistance and faced the 2016 assembly polls alone when J Jayalalithaa was at the helm, was desperate for an alliance speak in volumes about the party’s confidence in facing polls after the death of its charismatic leader two years back.

The BJP, which hardly has any base, is hoping to gain mileage from the strength of the alliance partners and many feel the party actually coerced an otherwise reluctant AIADMK for a tie-up.

It is a fact that the AIADMK is quite strong in Kongu region, which constitutes for 8 seats, and with the support of the PMK, the alliance will pose a major challenge for the DMK even in northern Tamil Nadu where it is popular and wields influence.

The AIADMK is also banking on votes of dominant castes like Kongu, to which Edappadi belongs, Vanniyars and Thevars, though majority of them are likely to side with Dhinakaran.

However, Prof Manivannan feels the “double anti-incumbency” against the Modi and Edappadi governments would trump all the arithmetic and other calculations.

“The alliance will not make any impact due to the overwhelming anti-BJP sentiment. I don’t see the BJP alliance making any headway because people are fed up with the governments and they seem to be just waiting for an opportunity,” he said.