JOIN USApril-May crucial for agriculture output, says study
The upcoming few months are important for agricultural output - as the threat of heat waves around the harvest period (April-May) poses a risk to the winter crop, according to a research paper.
Weather conditions are under watch over the next 3-6 months, which will matter for India’s crop cycles and in turn, impact the economy.
IMD’s forecasts in April and June will provide more clarity on the risks.
According to DBS Focus “India: Weather Watch and Impact”, temperature and rainfall intensity will matter as we head into the next crop cycle.
For India, the extent of the impact will depend on the severity, intensity, and length of the El Nino occurrence, according to the paper authored by Radhika Rao, Executive Director and Senior Economist at DBS Bank.
The southwest monsoon (June-September) covers three-fourths of the annual rainfall for the country, with the summer crop during this period influenced by spatial distribution, intensity, and geographical spread of the rain.
While the monsoon usually tends to weaken during the El Nino year, not all have resulted in droughts. The IMD defines drought in any area when the rainfall deficiency is more than 26 per cent of the long- term normal.
“Encouragingly, half of India’s cropped area is irrigated, but the rest is vulnerable to evolving conditions. Current live water storage levels at the reservoir are higher than the 10-year average but with wide intra-state differences, which suggests timely rainfall will still be crucial to maintain such buffers,” the paper states.
Delays in onset or belated withdrawal coupled with bouts of excessive rainfall are all risks for the final produce. “A case in point was last year’s cycle which witnessed above-normal southwest monsoon on aggregate. Yet, the distribution of rains was uneven through the different states with delayed withdrawal (October 2022 rains were 47 per cent higher than normal), affecting the final output,” it pointed out.