JOIN USApril was the cruellest month for Covid-19 in India
"April is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain."
When T S Eliot wrote "April was the cruellest month" in The Wasteland, he perhaps had no idea how true his words would ring in 2021.
As India witnesses one of its biggest health tragedies with coronavirus cases spiralling uncontrollably, April is the month of many firsts. Never before did a country report over 3 lakh daily cases of Covid-19. April 30 marked the ninth day of this over 3 lakh daily infections trajectory for India.
On April 30, data for which was released on May 1, India reported over 4 lakh daily Covid-19 cases, another grim record.
The death toll owing to the virus now stands at 2,11,853.
A fatal month in The Wasteland
In April alone, India saw 48,894 deaths, according to data from Wordometer. This is 23.07 per cent of all deaths since the pandemic began in March last year.
At its peak last year, India saw the highest daily deaths of around 2,000 in June as against 3,645 deaths on April 28, the highest this year.
Delhi worst affected in April
Among states, Maharashtra (1.5 per cent), Delhi (1.4 per cent), West Bengal (1.4 per cent), Punjab (2.4 per cent), Sikkim (1.8 per cent) and Himachal Pradesh (1.5 per cent) have the highest case fatality rates, according to data from Covid-19 India.
Maharashtra, Delhi, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have recorded the highest number of Covid-19 deaths so far.
In April alone, Maharashtra recorded 14,164 deaths, accounting for 20.5 per cent of total Covid deaths in the state since March 2020.
Of 16,147 deaths in Delhi since the beginning of the pandemic, April logged 5,120 deaths. This means that nearly 32 per cent of all fatalities in Delhi were in this month alone.
In Karnataka, deaths in April comprised 19 per cent of the total toll.
One-third of total cases in April alone
India added 69.54 lakh Covid-19 cases in April. The total number of cases since the beginning of the pandemic were 1,91,64,969, according to MoHFW data on May 1. This means that over one-third (36.23 per cent) of Covid-19 cases since the pandemic began were recorded in the last one month.
A deadly resurgence
With the promise of a new, better 2021, Covid infections at the beginning of the year were declining steadily. Everyday activities resumed slowly, people began stepping out and life looked on its path to normalcy, albeit in a new way.
By March 2021, India began seeing a recap of last year, only worse. Governments, health infrastructure and citizens were caught unprepared as the virus surged exponentially. Hospitals across the country, medical personnel and families are on the verge of breakdown as the virus continues to take its toll.
No end in sight?
Things may only get slightly worse before getting better, predictions show.
Active cases in the ongoing second Covid-19 wave in India may peak at 38-48 lakh between May 14-18 and daily cases could hit a high of 4.4 lakh between May 4-8, according to a mathematical model by IIT scientists, who have revised their projections upwards.
India currently has over 32 lakh active cases.
The scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur and Hyderabad applied the Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach' (SUTRA) model to arrive at this projection.
“Peak timing: May 14-18 for active infections and May 4-8 for new infections. Peak value: 38-48 lakhs for active infections and 3.4 to 4.4 lakhs for new infections,” Maninder Agrawal, professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering wrote on Twitter.