A three-member panel of scientists set up by the Centre said they expected India’s second Covid-19 wave to taper off by the end of July and a third wave to hit the country in another six to eight months, India Today reported.
The three-member panel, set up under the government’s Science and Technology Ministry, used the mathematical model known as the SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and Removed Approach) to estimate a figure of around 1.5 lakh cases per day by the end of May and a further reduction to 20,000 daily cases by June-end.
India’s massive surge in Covid-19 cases has shown signs of abating in recent days, with several states reporting lower daily case numbers, with some of the worst-hit states also showing reduced positivity rates. Still, some states are yet to face the worst of the second wave, according to the panel's predictions.
"States like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Kerala, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Haryana, besides Delhi and Goa, have already seen their peak," said Professor Manindra Agarwal from IIT Kanpur and a member of the panel.
The model predicts, however, that some states are yet to peak, including Tamil Nadu and Puducherry in the South, North-eastern states like Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura, as well as Himachal Pradesh and Punjab in the North.
A third wave was unlikely to arrive before October, Agarwal said, adding that it would likely be localised as more people get vaccinated.
The committee was honest about its inability to predict the breadth and scale of the second wave in the country. "We were very optimistic when we said the second wave will see 1.5 lakh cases daily. We were wrong," said Professor Mathukumalli Vidyasagar from IIT Hyderabad, who heads the panel.
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