CAB: the new flash point in Bengal politics

The Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB), 2019, is all set to become a flash point in Bengal politics.

While the TMC has made it clear they will oppose the CAB tooth and nail in the state, implementation of the bill in Bengal will be the lifeline for the state BJP.

It will be the key weapon for the Bengal BJP to counter Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s campaign that the Centre wants to drive out Bengalis by dubbing them foreigners through National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the CAB.

Mamata's campaign has cost BJP dearly— the saffron party drew a blank in the recent Assembly by-elections.

The CAB will trigger a battle of between the TMC and the BJP over wooing refugee Hindu voters.

The current refugee population in the state is about 5 million.

Mamata has repeatedly pointed out that more than 10 lakh Bengali Hindus have been left out of the final NRC list in Assam and the refugees in Bengal will meet the same fate if NRC is carried out in the state.

Her repeated assurance that as long as the TMC is in power, she will never allow the implementation of NRC and the CAB in Bengal is a prudent strategy for gaining the trust of refugee voters.

The BJP on the other hand is desperately trying to project the CAB as the legislation which will open the doors of Indian citizenship to Hindu refugees in the state and end any legal uncertainty about their citizenship status.

It is also trying to corner the TMC by accusing it of obstructing the process of the Hindu refugees getting Indian citizenship.

The BJP’s success in the Lok Sabha elections in Bengal came largely from the northern districts where NRC has created severe panic among people.

The TMC will leave no stone unturned to regain lost ground in north Bengal by using the issue.

The TMC supremo has been trying to link NRC and CAB together.

She has repeatedly alleged that both are BJP’s ploy to dub legal Indian citizens as “foreigners.”

The strategy which has brought success to her in the recent Assembly by-elections is likely to be a cause of concern for the BJP in the Municipal elections next year and the 2021 Assembly elections.

It may also further consolidate Muslim votes in TMC's favour.

However, if the BJP is able to convince refugee Hindu voters in Bengal about the claimed benefits of the CAB then they will be able to deliver a major blow to the TMC in 2021.

Overall, it seems that the CAB is turning out to be a double-edged sword for both the parties and it remains to be seen which side will capitalise on the issue.