Explained: Covid-19 'R value' and where India stands

The R value is exceeding the value of 1 in major cities, which indicates that the infections are spreading at a faster rate

India on Friday reported a spike of 16,764 new Covid-19 cases — the Omicron tally reached 1,270 — indicating that the newest fast-spreading variant is behind the spike in infections.

The rating, or simply 'R' in scientific terms, is currently exceeding the value of 1 in major cities, which indicates that the infections are spreading at a faster rate.

Even as there has been no official declaration of a third wave, the situation is currently edging towards a widespread re-emergence of Covid-19 in the country.

What is the R number?

The R number is a way of rating coronavirus or any disease's ability to spread. It indicates, on average, the number of people that an infected person will pass on the virus to.

However, R cannot be captured at the moment people are infected. Hence, experts work by analysing data of the number of cases, deaths and hospital admissions to estimate how fast the virus is spreading.

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An R number lower than 1 indicates that the disease will stop spreading as there aren't enough people being infected to sustain the outbreak. However, an R value of 1 or above indicates that the chain of an outbreak has not been broken, with one person spreading the virus to at least one other.

The current scenario

According to a report by The Indian Express, the R value is currently at 2 in Delhi and Mumbai, indicating that one infected person will affect at least two persons.

The report stated that the sharpest spikes are being reported in Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune, Kolkata and Chennai, among other major cities. Experts said that it is not just the large population that is the main cause, but the arrival of foreigners as well as a lack of better testing infrastructure.

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According to the report, the magnitude or the quality of the current surge cannot be estimated, as the Omicron variant deviates from the previous variants of the coronavirus. While initial data in Germany and South Africa suggest that the cases seem to be stabilising after a sharp spike, experts pointed to an unprecedented surge in cases in the US.
Despite reports of less severe disease amid higher transmissibility of the Omicron variant, experts also pointed out inconsistent testing during the festive period.

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