India would have seen 31,000 coronavirus cases without lockdown: Researches

India could have witnessed nearly 31,000 cases of COVID-19 by April 14 had the government not imposed a three-week lockdown, said a study conducted by researchers at the Shiv Nadar University.

However, the researchers cautioned that India would not be out of danger as there could be a surge of cases after the 21-day lockdown.

“The 21-day lockdown only helps us buying time to prepare ourselves for the better fight against Corona,” Samit Bhattacharya, Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics and Naga Suresh Veerapu, Assistant Professor Department of Life Sciences, at the Shiv Nadar University said.

The researchers have based their findings on the assumption that 80% to 90% of the population would contribute to social distancing.

“In this optimistic scenario, the projected number of symptomatic cases can decline by nearly 85% at day 20 from the beginning of the lockdown (3,500 against 30,790) and deaths (105 against 619) as well. Thus, intervention (20-day lockdown) may help at slowing transmission and ‘flattening’ the COVID-19 curve,” the researchers said.

For latest updates on coronavirus outbreak, click here

They recommended that all measures that may limit opportunities for the virus to spread must be continued, which not only limit any individual’s infection hazard but also protect the entire community.

Such measures may include, avoiding large gatherings, 14-day quarantine for suspected cases of infection, systematic surveillance and expanded testing for the identification of COVID-19 infections and continued work at home for employees.

“In presumptive lack of a decree on 21-day lockdown, India – with its population density of 412 people per square kilometer, the average range of 4.5 to 5 people per family and the majority of these families typically have one person above 60 years of age is undoubtedly predisposed to the easy spread of highly transmissible COVID-19 and may have witnessed a super surge in symptomatic cases,” the researchers said.