Mayawati's web of alliances flummox Congress

The back to back alliances with regional parties announced by BSP chief Mayawati in different states has taken the Congress by surprise, or even shock to some extent.

Starting from the first such sudden alliance with Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka in February last year, the BSP has repeatedly been maintaining that it feels that an alliance with regional parties is more fruitful than with the Congress.

She has not only been maintaining equi distance from BJP and Congress but also attacking Congress in equal measure, unnerving the main Opposition party, which hopes to halt the Modi juggernaut with the help of regional forces in 2019.

It is believed that it was on Mayawati’s insistence that the Congress was kept out of the Opposition alliance of BSP-SP and RLD in Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 Lok Sabha seats and the election outcome of the Hindi state will determine the shape of the next central government.

Mayawati is now also likely to enter into an alliance with RJD led grouping in Bihar but senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh ruled out the possibility of a repeat of Uttar Pradesh like arrangement in Bihar, where regional parties keep Congress out of alliance.

“We have already announced the alliance. The talks are now on seats. There is no chance of UP like situation playing out in Bihar,” Ramesh told DH when asked whether Congress apprehends any such scenario given the growing proximity between RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav and Mayawati.

Both BSP and SP have in the past allied with BJP but Congress does not see any such eventuality in 2019 post-poll scenario.

2 Oppn coalitions

A top Congress functionary, speaking on condition of anonymity, told DH: “What we are seeing is emergence of two Opposition coalitions---one led by Congress and the other kind of Federal Front in which strong parties in various states are forming coalitions minus Congress. But none of these parties can align with BJP. Our target is to limit the BJP below 150. Then regional parties will come to Congress for government formation,” said the functionary.

Mayawati has not looked back after her first tie up with a regional party in Karnataka. She sewed up an alliance with Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana and Ajit Jogi’s Janata Congress Chhattisgarh. BSP also contested minus Congress in the high stakes assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

Basic premise

Political analyst Rasheed Kidwai sees tension as a part of any alliance of secular parties, just like marital discord in which spouses fight but stay together.

"The basic premise of all these parties is that they are opposed to BJP. So even when BSP fought against Congress in Madhya Pradesh, it readily announced support to the party to form the government. The coming together of Opposition parties ahead of 2019 is not a smooth affair but it will happen post poll as all of them need to save their support bases," said Kidwai.

However, the fact that the 'secular grand alliance' plan, touted by Congress, has failed to take off in a number of states, it could be a dampener for the Opposition as 2019 is an election when every seat will count and there will be a scramble for allies between both BJP and Congress.