Monsoon to hit Kerala coast on June 4: Skymet

Private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday said the south-west monsoon would hit the Kerala coast on June 4.

Since the onset date comes with the error margin of two days on either side, the Malabar coast is likely to have its date with 2019 monsoon anytime between June 2-6.

The monsoon might enter the Andaman sea around May 22 and march to the next 10-12 days, said Air Vice Marshall G P Sharma (rtd), president, meteorology and climate change division at Skymet.

“It seems that initial advancement of monsoon over peninsular India is going to be slow. All the four regions are going to witness less than normal rainfall this season,” said Jatin Singh, managing director of the company that claims to be the weather analysis business for the last 15 years.

The official forecaster, India Meteorological Department, is yet to make an announcement on the monsoon onset.

The government weather bureau last month predicted that the south-west monsoon, 2019 would be near normal with India receiving 96% of its average rainfall of 88 cm.

But days before the IMD forecast, Skymet envisaged a “below normal” monsoon with 93% rainfall. IMD used a 5-parameter India-specific statistical model and the Monsoon Mission climate forecasting model for the long-range forecast in April, whereas Sharma said Skymet relied on the general climate forecasting model developed and run by the USA's National Centre for Environment Prediction.

Skymet on Tuesday also released its region wise estimates in which it claimed peninsular India would receive 95% of average rainfall and there was 75% chance of southern India getting normal or excess rainfall. The prospect is also good for northwest India as the rainfall is expected to be 96% of the average.

However, the sky may dry up for the residents of north-west, eastern and central India. In eastern India there is a 60% probability of monsoon being below normal or deficient while in central India such a probability rises to 70%, according to the Skymet estimates.