A closer look at AAP's historic MCD polls win

It peeves the AAP when it is called the BJP’s “B team”, which only defeats Congress. On Wednesday, at the victory celebrations, Delhi minister Gopal Rai said the MCD win was proof that the AAP can and has defeated the BJP.

Here is why it is crucial for the AAP. In 2014, the AAP was number two on vote share on Delhi’s seven Lok Sabha seats. The BJP bagged 46.4 per cent, AAP 32.9 per cent and Congres 15.1 per cent. Five years later, in the 2019 Lok Sabha, Delhi’s voters relegated the AAP to number three after the BJP and Congress. Delhi’s voters thought AAP and Kejriwal were fit to rule the Delhi Secretariat but not Raisina Hill. To be taken seriously, AAP must convince voters that it can defeat the BJP.

Read | The 'good and the bad' for AAP after MCD poll win in Delhi

The bad news for the AAP is that Muslims of Delhi, nearly 13 per cent (2011 Census), seem to be losing faith in it. According to the CSDS post-poll surveys of the 2015 and 2020 Assembly polls, the minorities, including Sikhs (4.43 per cent of Delhi), largely supported the AAP. The 2020 Assembly polls saw Congress vote share dropping to 4 per cent from 9.7 per cent in 2015, while that of AAP remained at 54.3 per cent (2015) and 53.57 per cent (2020).

However, in the MCD polls, it has dropped from the 2020 level by 11 per cent to 42.5 per cent, and Congress has improved to 11.68 per cent. The BJP has fractionally enhanced to 39.03 per cent from 38.51 per cent (2020). Seven of Congress’ nine wins have come in wards with a significant Muslim population.

The AAP’s taciturn support of the anti-CAA agitation in Delhi, its failure to take a clear stand on providing relief to the victims of the riots in North East Delhi in 2020 and its silence on the release of rapists and murderers of Bilkis Bano and her family, have not gone unnoticed.