JOIN USA Modi charm offensive on the cards in 240 seats?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi seemed to have coined one of his ‘Modiisms’ when he spoke of a “pro-incumbency” wave before filing his nomination from Varanasi. Was this just wishful thinking or was it a sign that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will attempt to cement the impression of a groundswell of support for him that his frenzied Varanasi roadshow pointed to?
The BJP’s strategy post the third phase of polling seems to be focused on a charm offensive on part of the PM. The image of a new Modi seems to be on the cards, as the interview with actor Akshay Kumar indicated; a Modi that many Indians would not have encountered before; a Modi who can crack jokes and shed tears when touched.
So, is the party planning a slight change of image for its poll mascot, supplementing the muscular nationalism and hardline Hindutva elements of his image with something can be described as his ‘softer side’?
Creating a pro-Modi wave would have been hard for the BJP in the first three phases of polling in 302 seats, which covered the whole of South India and other states. The response to Modi in the South can be best described as lukewarm, with the exception of Karnataka.
Therefore, it would not be surprising if the BJP saw the next four rounds of polling as Part II of Elections 2019. Polling will happen across seats spread in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, MP and Rajasthan in addition to Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and Himachal Pradesh.
On top of this, 32 seats in West Bengal will also be voting in these rounds. The BJP’s biggest gains in 2014 came from this block of states (except West Bengal).
The party’s most stunning victory, of course, was in UP, where the party won 71 out 80 seats. Apna Dal, a BJP ally, won two seats taking the NDA tally to 73. The BJP would be hoping that the PM’s roadshow will have a direct impact on seats in UP and Bihar (totalling 80) that will vote in the remaining rounds.
In West Bengal, too, the biggest factor as far the BJP goes is the pull and charisma of Modi. The story is the same in Maharashtra where 17 seats will go to the polls on April 29 in the fourth phase.
The party would be hoping to replicate its 2014 magic there, as well as in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which voted out BJP state governments in Assembly polls held late last year.
In these two states the Modi factor may be under strain, but this is a Lok Sabha election and people could be persuaded to think in terms of a PM candidate rather than a CM candidate.
The question is will this gambit work to stop the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ in its tracks in Uttar Pradesh and take many North Indian voters back to their Modi-loving ways?