Analysis: 2023 promises to be a political humdinger

With several states voting for new governments next year, the going will be tough for all political parties

The year 2023 will be a politically hectic year, with several Indian states going to polls, the results of which will be a pointer for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

In 2022, the saffron party returned to power in Gujarat, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. While the unexpected loss in Himachal Pradesh gave them a reality check, Modi’s charisma did work in others — especially Gujarat.

Next year, as many as nine states will vote for new governments. In 2018, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh booted out the BJP, but interestingly, the same electorate chose BJP over Congress in the Parliamentary elections.

Also Read: Gujarat elections: How BJP campaigned in Gujarat

Going to get tough for all

In Karnataka, the BJP is on a weak footing. However, for Congress, the situation is no different in Rajasthan. The BJP can’t assume it will emerge victorious in MP, nor can Congress in Chhattisgarh. In Telangana, the BJP will go all out to install its government, even as the TRS has spread its wings nationally.

Regional parties as party poopers

None is invincible in politics. It can’t be more true with the entry of regional parties in fray. The AAP will be buoyed by the success it tasted in Punjab, Goa and the Delhi MCD polls. It also played the role of a disruptor in Gujarat. Mamata Banerjee’s TMC will be facing some tense moments with the rise of the AAP. The party is looking to leave a mark in states like Tripura and Meghalaya.

Also Read: AAP made 'impressive entry' in Gujarat: Gopal Italia

BJP has its task cut out

Come February 2023, will the BJP go all guns blazing in wooing the electorate in its last full union budget before the 2024 Parliamentary polls? Will there be populist measures? How will the Modi government tackle issues related to inflation, and a global economic slowdown? All these questions will be scrutinised microscopically, not just by the election pundits but also by the general public.

In states like Karnataka, the party has to set its house in order. There are massive allegations of corruption against the incumbent Bommai-led government. Factionalism too is a big headache that the BJP top brass will have to spend time on.

With a formidable election machinery, it is not a rocket-science for the BJP to know and understand that national issues don’t win assembly elections, local issues do. So, sensitive national issues like security or Pakistan-exported terrorism or Article 370 abrogation may make no sense to the state electorate.

However, one exception to this could be India’s G20 presidency. Prime Minister Modi could tom-tom the aura around this event to his advantage in the state elections.

What about Congress?

The grand old party has found a whiff of fresh air in Himachal Pradesh’s unexpected victory. At the same time, Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra - from Kanyakumari to Kashmir - may have revived and resuscitated an ailing and slovenly cadre. But is it enough to impress the electorates in several states?

Also Read: Year-ender: Biggest political highlights of India in 2022

Newly crowned AICC chief Mallikarjun Kharge will be working meticulously to leave a lasting impression. Though it is in a better position to win in states like Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, the Congress has to work beyond its capacity to sit on the ruling chair.

2023 promises to be a political humdinger indeed.