Azad launching new party not a good news for Abdullahs of NC

Veteran Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad’s recent decision to quit the grand old party and launch his own, has not only affected the Indian National Congress in Jammu and Kashmir, but also the National Conference (NC), which would have to brace for the ripple effects of a new party in the union territory.

Free from the burden of Congress, and with his own party, Azad would be politically damaging for NC as well as to smaller parties like the People’s Conference of Sajad Lone and Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party.

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Political observers, however, said the biggest loser in the region’s developing political situation will be the NC, as it will lose to Azad a significant Muslim vote base in the Jammu region. Just a few days before Azad quit Congress, the NC had said goodbye to the Gupkar Alliance, and go solo in the upcoming Assembly polls—ground reports had given a clear indication to NC’s top brass that it could counter the Bharatiya Janata Party in case there was polarization of votes.

However, in the fast-changing political situation, whether or not the NC will be able to achieve that could only be known after the elections. Also, as most of the region’s senior Congress leaders already joined Azad, speculations are rife that, in the coming weeks, the trend would follow in parties like the NC, the People’s Democratic Party, People’s Conference and Apni Party.

A senior NC leader, wishing to remain anonymous, said that the arrival of a new party on the scene could snatch some seats from the NC's kitty. He also said that it could lead to further division of votes among the non-BJP parties. “This all will particularly hit the electoral interests of the NC in at least eight to 10 seats in Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal areas of Jammu region,” he said.

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"Azad has a strong vote base in Muslim majority areas of Jammu region, and the NC could be the biggest loser there. Similarly, if some of our senior leaders in Kashmir leave and join Azad—which can’t be ruled out—can dent us further," the leader said.

On the other hand, BJP’s vote bank in the Jammu region remained intact, and they were reportedly eyeing winning some seats in Kashmir this time through proxies, against the wishes of sulking NC. Already upset with the increase of more seats in Jammu and redrawing of boundaries of other assembly constituencies during delimitation exercise, the NC’s problems have increased manifold with the departure of Azad from Congress.