Karnataka elections to be a test for Congress, Kharge in run-up to Lok Sabha polls

The Karnataka elections will be a test of endurance for the Congress ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections and its president Mallikarjun Kharge.

For the Congress, inability to form a government would seal its fate in the Opposition panorama and see its role diminish. It would also have a more personal bearing on Kharge, as this would be his first big test, that too in his home state, after taking over as party president.

The Congress had in its Raipur Declaration after the Plenary Session in February made it clear how important the Assembly elections in Karnataka and other “important” states this year were, and had urged the workers and leaders to work with “discipline, solidarity and complete unity”.

It had said the results would “set the tone” for the “all-important” Lok Sabha elections in 2024, while the party's Political Resolution had said that these elections were “crucial for India’s future”.

As fas as the political calculus goes, the Congress cannot afford to lose Karnataka this time as it would signal the party's inability to lead the fight electorally against the Narendra Modi government. It would also lose bargaining power among its allies, which can have an adverse impact on elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan later this year.

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An adverse result would also mean that parties like Trinamool Congress, AAP and BRS, which have reluctantly cooperated with the Congress after Rahul managed to steal the spotlight, would move ahead with their own plans. Though these parties have not abandoned their plans to stitch together a non-Congress coalition, these parties at present have halted their attack on the Congress.

While a pan-India alliance may not come up, a Congress victory may prevent these parties from being at each other’s throats in the run-up to the 2024 polls.

Given these realities, the whole focus of the grand old party has now been turned to Karnataka and there could be a delay in Kharge announcing the new Congress Working Committee (CWC) which the Plenary has authorised him to nominate.

For Kharge, it will be a personal battle as it is his home state. So far, he has managed to keep warring leaders under control to put up a show of unity. A defeat or inability to form a government under Congress leadership, however, would considerably undermine these efforts and Kharge's stature.

With the party gaining momentum after Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and the campaign against Adani Group, it is confident of getting a majority on its own against the BJP-led “40 per cent government”. Congress leaders also believe that the latest developments on Adani Group and Rahul Gandhi’s conviction and disqualification will work in its favour.

Kharge will be in Karnataka this weekend while Rahul Gandhi is expected to hold a series of rallies, the first likely to be in Kolar on April 5. It was his Kolar speech in April 2019 that led to his conviction in a defamation case and his subsequent disqualification from the Lok Sabha, and Rahul's return to Kolar could be of political significance.

The Congress had already launched its campaign months ago and has announced ‘guarantees’ targeting several sections – women, poor, the youth, and the middle-class.

Kharge said that people are well aware of the “40 per cent government” and how BJP MLAs are caught with money earned through corruption. “We will fight the BJP and we will win,” the Congress chief recently said.

Congress General Secretary (Organisation) K C Venugopal told DH that the party has been in campaign mode for several months. “We have already established that the BJP runs a corrupt government. We will win,” he said.

Randeep Surjewala, party General Secretary and Karnataka in-charge, tweeted, “as the Election Commission announces Karnataka polls on the pious day of Durga Ashtami, Congress resolves to rid the state of the 40 per cent government and its brazen loot. Let’s rebuild Brand Karnataka ! Let Kannadiga pride flourish! Let’s implement Congress Guarantees! Let Karnataka win!”