At the end of 2013, the BJP ruled four key states—Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh—helmed by Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh, respectively.
Nearly nine years later, Modi, 72, is now electorally the third most successful PM ever and wields complete control over the BJP. But the political careers of the other three are precariously balanced.
Post-2014, the BJP's CMs and top state leaders have become nervier about the wishes of the party's high command. The recent examples of B S Yediyurappa, who was asked to quit as Karnataka CM and a year later included in the Parliamentary Board, and Devendra Fadnavis instructed to be the deputy CM in Maharashtra, are proof.
With MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan slated for Assembly polls by the end of 2023, Chouhan, Singh and Raje are on tenterhooks about their future roles, and would try to persuade the party's central leadership to bestow its grace on them.
Chouhan, 63, continues to be the Madhya Pradesh CM but was cut to size when dropped from the BJP's elite parliamentary board in August. Whether Chouhan, a four-term CM, gets to lead the party in the Assembly polls is uncertain, or so his rivals in the party say.
The party has nurtured several leaders in MP, including Kailash Vijayvargiya and its import from the Congress, Jyotiraditya Scindia. They are no fans of Chouhan and have lately shown rare mutual bonhomie. But the central leadership also recognises Chouhan's role in dislodging the Congress' Kamal Nath government formed after the 2018 polls.
In Chhattisgarh, the BJP is looking beyond 69-year-old Raman Singh, a three-term CM, to lead it into the next year's polls. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh held its annual coordination meeting of the top leaders of 36 affiliated outfits, including the BJP, in Raipur from September 10 to 12.
It was a recognition that the Bhupesh Baghel-led Congress government, which has consolidated its position with welfare schemes and propagation of 'Chhattisgarh culture', would be difficult to defeat.
The BJP appointed Bilaspur MP Arun Sao as its Chhattisgarh state unit chief, replacing its tribal face Vishnu Deo Sai in August. Sao comes from the Sahu community, Chhattisgarh's largest OBC community, followed by Kurmis, the community from which Baghel hails. Earlier this month, the BJP replaced D Purandeswari with Om Mathur as its state in-charge.
In Rajasthan, Raje's predicament has become intriguing after the party's booth workers' meeting in Jodhpur on September 10, where Union Home Minister Amit Shah praised the welfare schemes launched during her two chief ministerial tenures. However, he kept the question of who might lead the party into the Assembly polls open.
Raje was the CM from 2003-08 and 2013-18, but was miffed when her son Dushyant Singh, a fourth-term MP from Jhalawar-Baran, didn't find a spot in the Union council of ministers in 2019.
She kept away as the party leadership groomed Union Jal Shakti Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, a second-term MP from Jodhpur. Therefore, the choice of Jodhpur as the venue for Shah's OBC conclave was significant.
Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot, an OBC, has been a five-term MP from Jodhpur and is currently a two-term MLA from its Sardarpura Assembly seat. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Shekhawat defeated Gehlot's son, Vaibhav.
At the September 10 meeting, Shekhawat shared the podium with Raje, state BJP chief Satish Poonia and Kailash Choudhary, another Union minister from Rajasthan.
The four are considered Rajasthan CM aspirants, with its central election committee member OM Mathur, Union minister Arjun Ram Meghwal and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla as the other three key party leaders from the state.
If Shah praised the welfare schemes during Raje's CM tenure, he lauded Poonia's booth management work. In the run-up to the Jodhpur meeting, the central BJP asked Raje to be present to receive Shah, while Poonia was told to drop his proposed "yatra" from Pokhran to Ramdevra.
Party's poor performance under Poonia has queered the pitch for the central leadership. It has won only one of the seven bypolls since 2018, and its vote share has declined.
Raje stayed away from campaigning for the bypolls, later embarking on a 'religious yatra' in the Mewar region in November 2021 and five more since, all of which evoked a good response.
According to political observers, Raje has a good following among women, and despite being marginalised, 55 of BJP's 76 legislators are loyal to her. She has appeal across some of Rajasthan's dominant castes, including Gujjars, since her daughter-in-law is from that community, while she calls herself a Kshatriyani (Rajput woman), married to a Jat.
But others point out the anti-incumbency against the Gehlot government (Rajasthan has not returned a government since 1993), and it would matter little whether it is Raje or Shekhawat as the party's face. The slogan in 2018 was 'Modi tujhse bair nahi, Vasundhara teri khair nahi' (nothing against Modi, but won't spare Vasundhara). The BJP lost the December Assembly polls but swept Rajasthan's 25 Lok Sabha seats four months later.
Comebacks in the current BJP may be difficult but not impossible, as Yediyuruppa has shown. With Karnataka Assembly polls drawing near, the BJP leadership had to accord him respect by including him in the Parliamentary Board, its highest decision-making body, as they do not have a Lingayat leader as tall as him within their ranks.
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