JOIN USSole Opposition status an opportunity for BJP in Bihar
The BJP has successfully wedded its 'kamandal' politics with Mandal in Uttar Pradesh, but neighbouring Bihar has been a bumpier ride for its Hindutva juggernaut.
Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) severing ties with it, and a spectrum of parties ranged against it in the Assembly, the BJP is now the solitary party occupying the Opposition space, which could become the opportunity in work clothes its state unit has awaited.
Since 1996, the BJP’s been wary of contesting in Bihar without the crutches of Mandal parties as allies, whether Samata Party, JD(U) or Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP. In 2015, faced with the grand alliance of JD(U), RJD and Congress, the BJP was nervous enough to contest only 157 of the 243-seats. That it allowed LJP and even smaller parties as many as 86 seats to contest betrayed its poor organisational strength and limited appeal among Dalits, EBCs and OBCs of the state.
But the future could be different. After the 2020 polls, BJP sent Sushil Modi, the deputy chief minister to Kumar, to Delhi and appointed Renu Devi and Tarakishore Prasad, both EBCs, as deputy CMs.
The BJP would also try to exploit the caste contradictions between JD(U)’s Kurmis-led EBC and Mahadalit support base and RJD’s Yadav support base.
“The BJP’s challenge in Bihar is not merely to give representation to EBCs at the top level, but hand over the leadership of its district and block level organisation to Dalits and EBCs,” said political analyst Shambhu Shrivastav.
Sceptical of the BJP’s ability to accomplish this, given that it is overwhelmingly an upper caste party in Bihar, Shrivastav believes the BJP could become the go-to party for castes and communities, especially those that back JD(U), which might find the new government unsympathetic.
The BJP would also focus on the RJD-JD(U) contradictions on corruption issues and strengthen its organisation in constituencies that JD(U) contested as part of their alliance. Unlike the RJD, which has its ‘MY’ cadre in villages, the JD(U)’s organisational structure is poor.
Moreover, as election strategist Prashant Kishor has pointed out, Kumar’s credibility has dipped over the years, evident in the JD(U)’s seats tally dropping from 117 in 2010 to 72 in 2015 and 43 in 2020. The pitfall for the BJP could be negotiating issues on which the RJD and JD(U) have consensus, especially the demand for a caste census.
Finally, unlike in UP, the BJP has struggled to find an emotive issue to consolidate Bihar’s sundry castes under the Hindutva umbrella. Will it find one now?