<p>Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front in Kerala are likely to remain in power, while DMK, in all probability, will trounce the incumbent AIADMK-led government in Tamil Nadu in the Assembly polls in April-May, an opinion poll by ABP-CVoter claimed on Monday.<br /><br />The opinion poll also said that the BJP would return to power in Assam, while it is a neck and neck race in Puducherry where the NDA has a slight edge over the ruling Congress-led coalition.<br /><br />In West Bengal, the poll showed, the BJP is projected to have a surge but it may not be enough to dethrone Trinamool Congress in the 294-member Assembly.</p>.<p>Read: <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/east-and-northeast/west-bengal-cm-mamata-banerjee-to-contest-assembly-polls-from-nandigram-940397.html">West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee to contest Assembly polls from Nandigram</a><br /><br />The Trinamool Congress is projected to get 154 to 162 seats, while the BJP is likely to bag 98-106 seats. The Left-Congress together is likely to be relegated to a distant third with 26-34 seats, indicating that both the parties, despite having an electoral understanding, is unlikely to improve its position.<br /><br />The vote-share prediction showed a massive jump for BJP from 10.2 per cent votes in 2016 elections to 37.5 per cent in the upcoming Assembly polls. Trinamool might see a decline of 1.9 per cent to 43 per cent votes , while the Left-Congress combine, which got 32 per cent votes five years ago, settling at a low 11.8 per cent votes with a large chunk of its supporters apparently shifting to the BJP.<br /><br />Banerjee continues to be popular, bagging 48.8 per cent of around 18,000 respondents, while BJP Bengal chief Dilip Ghosh at a distant second with 18.7 per cent, followed by former cricketer Saurav Ganguly bagging 13.4 per cent share.</p>.<p>Read: <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/shiv-sena-to-contest-west-bengal-assembly-polls-940140.html">Shiv Sena to contest West Bengal Assembly polls</a><br /><br />MK Stalin-led DMK is poised to win handsdown in Tamil Nadu with 158-166 seats in the 234-member Assembly where the ruling AIADMK-led coalition is likely to be reduced to 60-68 seats. Kamal Hassan's MNM may win up to four seats, while TTK Dhinakaran and V K Sasikala-led AMMK could bag 2-6 seats.<br /><br />Stalin is the popular choice for Chief Ministership with 36.4 per cent vouching for him, while incumbent E K Palaniswami is second with 25.5 per cent. Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam is way behind at 10.9 per cent, while Sasikala, who is slated to be released from jail later this month, has 10.6 per cent support.<br /><br />Rajnikanth, who finally announced that he would not be forming a party, has 4.3 per cent votes, while Kamal Hassan has approval of 3.6 per cent of over 15,000 respondents.<br /><br />According to pollsters, the anti-incumbency cycle of past two Assembly elections is culminating into an advantage for DMK, while AMMK is unable to poll double digit vote share across the state but causes damage to AIADMK. The poll differential between DMK and AIADMK is difficult to bridge as of now and such a result will be significant as DMK did not register such huge wins even under M Karunanidhi, they say.<br /><br />If the opinion poll is to be believed, Kerala will buck the trend of unseating the incumbent this time with the CPI(M)-led government returning to power. The Left Democratic Front is likely to win 80-89 seats in the 140-member Assembly, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front will have to settle for 49-57 seats.<br /><br />The BJP is unlikely to have much impact in Kerala as it could get a maximum of two seats. At present, BJP has one MLA in the state.<br /><br />The opinion poll could be disappointing for the Congress, which is hoping to win Kerala in times of political despair. Pollsters find that 'others' are cutting into vote-share of both the LDF and UDF but the latter is losing more. "Any improved performance of BJP over the last election will hit the LDF more than UDF due to commonality of Hindu vote bank," they said.<br /><br />Vijayan (47%) is more than twice as popular as the Congress leader Oomen Chandy (22%), while Leader of Opposition Ramesh Chennithala is way behind with 4.1 per cent votes. Health Minister K K Shailaja, who earned international praise for leading the efforts to tackle Covid-19, has got 6.3 per cent votes of over 6,000 respondents.<br /><br />In Assam, the BJP-led NDA is likely to comfortably romp home with 73-81 seats in the 126-member Assembly, while the UPA may have to settle for 36 to 44 seats. The opinion poll gives 5-9 seats to AIUDF (predicted vote share 8.2%) with whom the Congress (34.9%) is in talks for an electoral understanding. The BJP is predicted to get 43.1 per cent and if the Congress and AIUDF come together, it could give a tough fight, if one goes by the vote share.<br /><br />Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal tops the popularity chart with 30 per cent votes, followed by his cabinet colleague Himanta Biswa Sarma (21.6%) and Congress' Gaurav Gogoi with 18.8 per cent of over 5,000 votes.<br /><br />In Puducherry, it appears trouble for Congress Chief Minister V Narayanaswamy as the ruling coalition could get 12-16 seats in a 30-member Assembly. The NDA could get 14-18 seats, while MNM could get one seat. </p>
<p>Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front in Kerala are likely to remain in power, while DMK, in all probability, will trounce the incumbent AIADMK-led government in Tamil Nadu in the Assembly polls in April-May, an opinion poll by ABP-CVoter claimed on Monday.<br /><br />The opinion poll also said that the BJP would return to power in Assam, while it is a neck and neck race in Puducherry where the NDA has a slight edge over the ruling Congress-led coalition.<br /><br />In West Bengal, the poll showed, the BJP is projected to have a surge but it may not be enough to dethrone Trinamool Congress in the 294-member Assembly.</p>.<p>Read: <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/east-and-northeast/west-bengal-cm-mamata-banerjee-to-contest-assembly-polls-from-nandigram-940397.html">West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee to contest Assembly polls from Nandigram</a><br /><br />The Trinamool Congress is projected to get 154 to 162 seats, while the BJP is likely to bag 98-106 seats. The Left-Congress together is likely to be relegated to a distant third with 26-34 seats, indicating that both the parties, despite having an electoral understanding, is unlikely to improve its position.<br /><br />The vote-share prediction showed a massive jump for BJP from 10.2 per cent votes in 2016 elections to 37.5 per cent in the upcoming Assembly polls. Trinamool might see a decline of 1.9 per cent to 43 per cent votes , while the Left-Congress combine, which got 32 per cent votes five years ago, settling at a low 11.8 per cent votes with a large chunk of its supporters apparently shifting to the BJP.<br /><br />Banerjee continues to be popular, bagging 48.8 per cent of around 18,000 respondents, while BJP Bengal chief Dilip Ghosh at a distant second with 18.7 per cent, followed by former cricketer Saurav Ganguly bagging 13.4 per cent share.</p>.<p>Read: <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/shiv-sena-to-contest-west-bengal-assembly-polls-940140.html">Shiv Sena to contest West Bengal Assembly polls</a><br /><br />MK Stalin-led DMK is poised to win handsdown in Tamil Nadu with 158-166 seats in the 234-member Assembly where the ruling AIADMK-led coalition is likely to be reduced to 60-68 seats. Kamal Hassan's MNM may win up to four seats, while TTK Dhinakaran and V K Sasikala-led AMMK could bag 2-6 seats.<br /><br />Stalin is the popular choice for Chief Ministership with 36.4 per cent vouching for him, while incumbent E K Palaniswami is second with 25.5 per cent. Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam is way behind at 10.9 per cent, while Sasikala, who is slated to be released from jail later this month, has 10.6 per cent support.<br /><br />Rajnikanth, who finally announced that he would not be forming a party, has 4.3 per cent votes, while Kamal Hassan has approval of 3.6 per cent of over 15,000 respondents.<br /><br />According to pollsters, the anti-incumbency cycle of past two Assembly elections is culminating into an advantage for DMK, while AMMK is unable to poll double digit vote share across the state but causes damage to AIADMK. The poll differential between DMK and AIADMK is difficult to bridge as of now and such a result will be significant as DMK did not register such huge wins even under M Karunanidhi, they say.<br /><br />If the opinion poll is to be believed, Kerala will buck the trend of unseating the incumbent this time with the CPI(M)-led government returning to power. The Left Democratic Front is likely to win 80-89 seats in the 140-member Assembly, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front will have to settle for 49-57 seats.<br /><br />The BJP is unlikely to have much impact in Kerala as it could get a maximum of two seats. At present, BJP has one MLA in the state.<br /><br />The opinion poll could be disappointing for the Congress, which is hoping to win Kerala in times of political despair. Pollsters find that 'others' are cutting into vote-share of both the LDF and UDF but the latter is losing more. "Any improved performance of BJP over the last election will hit the LDF more than UDF due to commonality of Hindu vote bank," they said.<br /><br />Vijayan (47%) is more than twice as popular as the Congress leader Oomen Chandy (22%), while Leader of Opposition Ramesh Chennithala is way behind with 4.1 per cent votes. Health Minister K K Shailaja, who earned international praise for leading the efforts to tackle Covid-19, has got 6.3 per cent votes of over 6,000 respondents.<br /><br />In Assam, the BJP-led NDA is likely to comfortably romp home with 73-81 seats in the 126-member Assembly, while the UPA may have to settle for 36 to 44 seats. The opinion poll gives 5-9 seats to AIUDF (predicted vote share 8.2%) with whom the Congress (34.9%) is in talks for an electoral understanding. The BJP is predicted to get 43.1 per cent and if the Congress and AIUDF come together, it could give a tough fight, if one goes by the vote share.<br /><br />Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal tops the popularity chart with 30 per cent votes, followed by his cabinet colleague Himanta Biswa Sarma (21.6%) and Congress' Gaurav Gogoi with 18.8 per cent of over 5,000 votes.<br /><br />In Puducherry, it appears trouble for Congress Chief Minister V Narayanaswamy as the ruling coalition could get 12-16 seats in a 30-member Assembly. The NDA could get 14-18 seats, while MNM could get one seat. </p>
