The BJP twice swept the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019 on the issue of corruption, succeeding on both occasions in turning the poll discourse into a presidential referendum between "tea seller" Narendra Modi and "princeling" Rahul Gandhi.
As it plans a hat trick in 2024, Opposition leaders are wary of yet another Modi versus Rahul electoral battle, which explains the recent dissonance on crucial poll planks in the Opposition camp.
Led by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin in the south, Congress' Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot in the northwest, Janata Parivar leaders Akhilesh Yadav, Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav in the Hindi heartland and Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee in the east, the Opposition is now looking at social justice and welfarism as the overarching narrative to take on the Sangh Parivar.
Opposition leaders have requested the Congress to see the wisdom of its plan instead of "falling into the BJP trap" of replying to Modi's personality cult by projecting Rahul as the alternative.
On Monday, Stalin hosted the first All India Federation for Social Justice meeting. Non-Congress Opposition leaders flagged themes such as caste census and increasing economic disparity. RJD leader Tejashwi said the best way to beat BJP's politics of 'polarisation' was through social justice-based politics. "We should give a call - no census, if no caste census," RJD's Manoj Jha said.
AAP MP Sanjay Singh also called for a caste census, as did others. CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury said over the last two years, 40.5% of the wealth generated has been cornered by 1% of the population.
"All of us remember the 2019 elections where Rahul Gandhi was convinced of his 'chowkidar chor hai' campaign. In a rerun of 2014, it turned into a Modi versus Rahul contest and a walkover for the BJP. If Rahul persists in harping on the Adani issue, 2019 could repeat in 2024," an MP from a regional party said.
So on Friday, NCP chief Sharad Pawar took the wind out of the Congress campaign, demanding a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) probe into the alleged links between Modi and industrialist Gautam Adani. He suggested an investigation by a Supreme Court committee. Pawar also said he did not know about the antecedents of US-based Hindenburg Research, and "we must decide how much focus should be on this".
The Trinamool Congress also backs an SC-monitored probe instead of a JPC.
Neither the TMC nor the Akhilesh-led Samajwadi Party was comfortable lending its voice to the Congress-led protests on Rahul's disqualification from the Lok Sabha but found it wise to join in since the public sympathy was with him.
Days before his disqualification, addressing her party workers in Murshidabad, Banerjee said the BJP is not letting Parliament function to establish Rahul as the foremost leader in the national Opposition space.
"If Rahul Gandhi remains that leader, nobody would ever be able to defeat Narendra Modi because Rahul is Modi’s biggest TRP or at least everybody says so,” she said.
In March, Banerjee flew down to Bhubaneshwar to meet Odisha CM and Biju Janata Dal chief Naveen Patnaik, while she met Akhilesh in Kolkata. The SP chief has spent days in Amethi and Rae Bareli recently. Both seats are considered the pocket boroughs of the Congress first family, where SP has not fielded candidates against Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi.
However, indications are that this could change in 2024. The SP and TMC are apprehensive that Rahul's support base among minorities has increased after his Bharat Jodo Yatra, which could hurt them in UP and Bengal, both with a significant Muslim populations.
Earlier, Pawar had disagreed with Rahul's criticism of freedom fighter V D Savarkar and said the Congress leader should avoid commenting on the Hindutva icon.
Maharashtra Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan said that his party has agreed not to raise the issue of V D Savarkar since the three Maha Vikas Aghadi partners hold different views on him.
Pawar has suggested the Opposition focus on "more important issues like unemployment, price rise and problems of farmers" instead of Adani.
Meanwhile, Congress CMs Gehlot, Chhattisgarh's Bhupesh Baghel and Himachal's Sukhwinder Sukhu have unveiled several welfare schemes, hoping they would help the party in these states in 2024.
As Congress president Kharge reaches out to rivals, Opposition leaders are convinced, as are some in the Congress, that only an issue-based agenda (not a personality-driven one) has any chance of succeeding in whittling down the BJP's seats 12 months from now.
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