Rajya Sabha polls: Spotlight on Madhya Pradesh

Nominations for Rajya Sabha polls closed on Friday, with 55 seats up for grabs in the March 26 elections which could see a keen battle in states like Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress received a royal shock after Jyotiraditya Scindia switched sides to the BJP.

Polls in states like Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra could be a smooth affair as candidates of respective parties could get elected unopposed in proportion of their numbers in the state Assembly.

This round of polls will not substantially alter the political landscape in the Rajya Sabha. But the ruling BJP — which has 82 members and still depends on allies to get key bills passed in the Upper House — will lose some seats on account of losing elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.

Among the retiring or resigned members, 15 belong to the BJP. While it will lose a few (it might win only 12, thereby reducing its tally to 79), the BJP’s allies will win some seats.

The Congress, which is second with 46 members in the House, will, however, not gain much. Regional parties like the NCP and the RJD will gain some seats.

The spotlight undoubtedly will be on Madhya Pradesh, where Kamal Nath is battling to save his government from a political crisis triggered by Jyotiraditya Scindia, who rocked the Congress boat by deserting the party he was associated with for 19 years.

Jyotiraditya, who was fielded by the BJP, is expected to coast into the Upper House, as will his arch rival Digvijaya Singh who has been fielded by the Congress.

The third seat could witness an intense tussle, for which both the BJP and the Congress have fielded Sumer Singh Solanki and Phool Singh Baraiya respectively.

At the state level, the ruling BJP can win three seats each in Maharasthra and Assam, two in Gujarat and one each from Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur.

Former Congress leaders like Bhubaneswar Kalita from Assam and Udayanraje Bhosale from Maharashtra are all set to get elected as Rajya Sabha members from the BJP in this round of polls.

The upcoming polls when 10 seats are falling vacant in UP in November this year and four seats from Karnataka going to polls in June this year will see a substantial rise in the BJP’s numbers in the House.

However, the big bang change in the Rajya Sabha numbers will only be visible in 2022 when nearly 70 members from the Upper House will be retiring from the Opposition-ruled states.

In the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah Gujarat, there was drama after a Congress MLA knocked the court’s doors fearing he may be prevented from voting.

In Maharashtra, where the BJP lost its oldest ally Shiv Sena and the state, the BJP has fielded three candidates, the NCP two, the Shiv Sena and the Congress one.

While Sharad Pawar will have any easy victory, the other candidate of NCP Fauzia Khan may have to sweat it out.

In Bihar, RJD’s decision to unilaterally announce candidates for both seats, has left allies, particularly the Congress, high and dry.

In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP, despite having no chance to win a seat, has pushed a candidate playing the Dalit card to muddy the political waters, but the YSRC will win all four seats.

In Haryana, old wounds have reopened in the Congress with the party choosing to field former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s son Deepender Hooda from the seat, which fell vacant following the retirement of former Union Minister Kumari Selja, also a contender for the seat.

Key candidates in fray

Digvijay Singh, Jyotiraditya Scindia (Madhya Pradesh), Sharad Pawar, Ramdas Athavale, Rajiv Satav, Priyanka Chaturvedi (Maharasthra), Rajya Sabha Deputy Chairman Harivansh, former Union Minister Prem Chandra Gupta (Bihar), former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s son Deepender Hooda (Haryana), Reliance Industries Limited senior group president Parimal Nathwani (Telangana), K C Venugopal (Rajasthan), Shaktisinh Gohil and Bharatsinh Solanki (Gujarat), Dinesh Trivedi, Mausam Noor (West Bengal), K T S Tulsi (Chhattisgarh), Bhubaneshwar Kalita (Assam)