What is in store for parties in 2023?

The year 2023 could set the tone for the 2024 polls though BJP believes a dismal 2018 results did not have an impact on 2019 results

Fourteen months from now will see India’s political parties on a do-or-die war to win the biggest seat of Indian democracy – the Lok Sabha. While the BJP wants to repeat the past two victories, a still disjointed Opposition is looking to find a common ground. The year 2023 could set the tone for the 2024 polls though BJP believes the dismal 2018 results did not have an impact on the 2019 results.

BJP: For the BJP, 2023 is crucial as a setback could have an impact on its 2024 prospects. In 2018, it lost all four major states where it had stakes but managed to win back power in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka through defections. Its attempt in Rajasthan to unseat Congress came a cropper while the numbers were against in Chhattisgarh. This time, the BJP will also like to add Telangana to its roster.

Congress: With Bharat Jodo Yatra, Congress is making the right noises. There is growing acknowledgement about shedding the ‘Big B’ attitude towards other Opposition parties, with Rahul Gandhi himself saying their counterparts should “feel comfortable and feel respected”. For the party, retaining Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh where the factional fight is at its zenith is important as winning back Karnataka. It will also need to ensure that BJP doesn’t usurp its space in Telangana if it cannot unseat BRS. Tripura and other poll-bound north-eastern states will be another concern area.

AAP: The new kid in the block – AAP – will be looking for new pastures after Punjab, Goa and Gujarat. Karnataka would be one state that AAP would try its hands now. Having the credentials of a national party, it could face trouble not just from Congress but other Opposition parties who do not want to give space to another entity. The question will be whether AAP will burn the bridge with the Opposition before 2024 or will it play to the tune.

Trinamool Congress: The 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections propelled Mamata Banerjee’s ambitions but its dismal performance in Goa punctured its plans. Trinamool’s stock may be sliding with the rise of AAP but it still remains the ‘Bengal Tiger’. To watch will be the war of wits between Abhishek Banerjee-led ‘New-Gen’ and Mamata loyalists for control.

RJD/JD(U): All eyes will be on Bihar throughout 2023. Questions that will ponder political watchers will be whether Nitish Kumar makes way for Tejashwi Yadav – a move Lalu Prasad would love to have at the earliest – and move to national politics as well as whether one would see both parties merge. Nitish still holds the key to the answers.

Samajwadi Party: With Mulayam Singh Yadav’s exit, all eyes will be on his son Akhilesh Yadav on how he navigates the treacherous political manoeuvres. He has signalled the right moves by patching up with his uncle Shivpal Yadav. The road is uphill as consistent political activity would be needed to catapult SP from an Opposition party to a ruling party in UP.

BSP: In politics, writing off is the foolish thing to do but BSP still raises the question of where it is headed to. Will Mayawati manage to win back the Dalit support is a question when the BJP is smartly distorting identity politics into a larger Hindutva agenda.

Shiv Sena: Uddhav Thackeray or Eknath Shinde – it is a war of attrition and who will have the last laugh is of utmost anticipation this year. BJP managed to break the Shiv Sena but Uddhav believes he still has in him to reverse it and be on top.

NCP: Sharad Pawar will be the patriarch of Opposition politicians, who will be sought after as 2024 approaches. Will he officially put in place a succession plan in his party is to be watched?

CPI(M): Tripura is one state the CPI(M) will be closely watching. It believes it still has a good chance to return to power in the northeastern state, which it lost after 25 years in government.

JD(S): The party founded by a former Prime Minister may not have in it to be the number one player in Karnataka but it dreams of continuing to be the kingmaker-turned-king like in 2018. Odds appear to be against it and 2023 will be a deciding year for it.

BRS: By changing its identity from TRS to BRS, K Chandrasekhar Rao hopes to fend off opponents in the upcoming Assembly elections. He would want to play a big role in national politics in 2024 but all will depend on whether he can return to power this year.

DMK/AIADMK: DMK has set the succession plan in place and appears to be on top while its opponent AIADMK is still grappling with factional fights. AIADMK also has the trouble of BJP cobbling it up if a bit of space is given. For them, settling issues between Edappadi Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam will be high on the agenda.

YSR Congress: Jaganmohan Reddy continues to hold sway in Andhra Pradesh but it is to be seen how his sister YS Sharmila broke away from YSR Congress to launch her own political career in Telangana fares.

National Conference/PDP: One of the most anticipated elections will be in Jammu and Kashmir but there is no clarity on when it will take place. Some speculate it will be in May. Key players will be NC and PDP against the BJP.

NPP: Conrad Sangma believes he could once again pull off the Meghalaya election and has announced that he will have no truck with the BJP.

NDPP: The only party in the country that has no Opposition in Assembly. Will NDPP be able to steer Nagaland to sustainable peace is the question in 2023