Why victories in Maharashtra, Haryana are key to BJP

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a victory in the Assembly elections in 288 seats in Maharashtra and 90 in Haryana, is crucial for two reasons. First, it will indicate that the wave of belligerent nationalism and economic egalitarianism, which unexpectedly handed the BJP a mandate bigger than 2014, is not yet showing signs of receding. What is more, the victories in these two politically and geographically diverse states will indicate that new nationalistic elements, added to the party's plank since re-assuming office in the last week of May, are resonating with the people.

Second, the BJP's successes will vindicate its decision to hand over chief ministerial berths to representatives of non-dominant communities. Both Devendra Fadnavis and Manohar Lal Khattar are not from the dominant Maratha and Jat communities in Maharashtra and Haryana. While Fadnavis is a Brahmin, Khattar is a Punjabi Khatri – and among his first announcements after assuming office in 2014 was to drop his surname.

But this gesture hardly resonated with people and the caste tag stuck. Fadnavis too for a major part of his tenure had to weather the Maratha challenge. Yet, the success of both chief ministers, alongside that of Raghubar Das in Jharkhand, underscores the depth of talent in regional units of the BJP unknown prior to 2014. All three of them cut their teeth in the RSS and made a seamless transition to the BJP after being deputed to the party by its ideological fountainhead.

This more than anything else was testimony to the symbiotic relationship between the RSS and the BJP. The relationship has deepened further and the RSS now has stakes in every BJP victory. The element of doubt over RSS' enthusiasm to participate in election campaigns has disappeared. This time too, the RSS cadre is certain to solidly line up behind the BJP, not the least because both Fadnavis and Khattar are their own.

Till well into 2017, Khattar struggled as far as governance was concerned and he had been almost given up as a non-performer. The turnaround in his fortunes and his soaring personal popularity, visible in the recently concluded 'Jan Ashirwad Yatra' through each of the 90 assembly constituencies, was partly the result of unceasing internecine feud among faction leaders of the Congress. It was also due to the Opposition party's failure to direct criticism at the chief minister and instead focus all ammunition towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The recent point made by senior Congress leaders, Jairam Ramesh, Shashi Tharoor and Abhishek Manu Singhvi, regarding the limitation of Modi-centric politics is most evident in Maharashtra and Haryana. Had the Opposition parties in the two states pursued different strategies, one directed against the state BJP leadership and the other at the national level, the BJP would not have been in the advantageous position that it is now in these two states. Keeping Modi as the focus of the attack, enabled him to envelop his state leaders in a protective embrace and his success in turn enveloped them, while the questions regarding inadequacies in governance got brushed under the carpet.

Test of BJP’s popularity

The verdict of this round of Assembly polls will indicate if the surge in BJP's favour post Pulwama terror strike and Balakot rejoinder by India is being sustained. It must be factored that the BJP has furthered its image of heading a Hindutva-centric authoritarian regime by its actions on Article 370, enacting the Triple Talaq Bill, making key amendments to the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) and the watering down of the RTI Act. It has been assumed, based on anecdotal evidence, that the decision to strip Jammu & Kashmir of its statehood and deprive it of the special status, has appealed to majoritarian sentiments among the sections beyond the core BJP support base. The viewpoint that the decision on Article 370 has widespread backing advances the theory that this decision has paved the way for push towards Hindutva on other core issues, including Ram temple and Uniform Civil Code.

The verdict from these states will indicate if economic challenges being faced by people are yet to become as dominant as they appeared to be throughout 2018 when the BJP lost a series of bypolls before finally being voted out of power in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. Success for the BJP in Maharashtra and Haryana will once again raise questions about the survival of the Kamal Nath government in MP as the Congress continues to have a not-so-comfortable majority.

These Assembly elections are also the first test for Sonia Gandhi after she decided to don the mantle of the party chief once again. The chief cause of concern in the Congress is that it remains a divided house both at the Centre and in the states. Leaders of all ranks continue deserting the party and while Sonia Gandhi is yet to assume complete charge, Rahul Gandhi's words and actions remain of significance as a result of which the party suffers from torn loyalties.

Moreover, on most controversial issues, the party has been divided down the middle. For instance on Article 370 while Gandhi opposed the government's decision to de-operationalise Article 370, many important leaders, including Jyotiraditya Scindia lent support to the move. Additionally, on both Triple Talaq and amendment to UAPA, the Congress hardly played the role of an effective Opposition party.

The absence of effective local and united leadership of the Congress is in contrast to the situation in the BJP where for the first time, the state leadership and national leadership are complimenting one another, each one being the other's strength. The only way the Congress can provide a semblance of Opposition and prevent the BJP from running away with the polls are the old tested formulae: Strategic and effective alliances coupled with the internal unity. Both are tall orders currently and it is up to Sonia Gandhi to discover her magic. Her failure to do so, will spell doom for the party and further tighten Modi and the BJP's stranglehold on Indian polity.

(Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay is a Delhi-based journalist and author. His latest book is RSS: Icons Of The Indian Right. He has also written Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times (2013))

The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.