JOIN USWith backs to the wall, ex-NDA parties reassess Oppn ties
Between 2018 and 2020, a clutch of parties walked out of the NDA, some even after Narendra Modi returned to power with an improved mandate.
These exits — the TDP, Akalis to name a few — made much noise. Those who chose the exit door had become wary of the BJP, which they now saw as a 'frenemy': a party that spoke the alliance language while quietly encroaching on their turf.
Having ditched the BJP, they dissed it alongside the Opposition. It made for a pretty picture.
That was then. But, as the saying goes, there are no permanent friends or foes in politics; only permanent interests.
A concatenation of problems — failure to adjust with new friends, trust deficit or pure political calculations combined with coercion through defections and fear of central agencies — appear to have prompted these parties to do a rethink on their allegiance to the Opposition camp.
Take the case of the TDP. Remember supremo Chandrababu Naidu breathing fire against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP for their “step-motherly” treatment of Andhra Pradesh? A miffed Naidu left the NDA in 2018 over the issue.
And the Akali Dal bid adieu over the now-repealed farm laws.
Sources say both are now trying to work their way back into the BJP's good graces as they find themselves cornered or nearly decimated in their respective states.
Both the parties rose on an anti-Congress platform, but, in a telling sign, they are yet to accept the Congress’ supremacy in leading the Opposition, leaving them with fewer options.
A senior TDP leader told DH recently, “To be frank, there are no direct talks with the BJP at present, but we have sent clear signals that we are not against them, we are ready to do business. Let us see.”
An Akali Dal leader did not comment on cosying up to the BJP even as it sent a representative to BRS leader K Kavitha’s protest on the Women’s Reservation Bill.
The LJP, before it split, is another case in point.
Late Ram Vilas Paswan’s son Chirag Paswan went whole hog against the JD(U) and its leader Nitish Kumar when he was with the BJP-ruled Bihar. But the LJP split and Chirag's uncle took a section of the party to stay with the NDA.
Chirag’s LJP was friendly with the RJD, spoke the Opposition lingo and was seen as a potential ally. But Chirag was seen as a BJP ploy to undercut JD(U)’s numerical superiority as he fielded candidates only against Nitish’s party in Bihar elections.
Soon after the polls, Chirag was unofficially seen in the NDA camp. What Chirag appeared to have done in Bihar, the official LJP faction looks to have repeated it in Nagaland against the NDPP.
Another party, which actually gave heft to the Opposition was the Shiv Sena when it walked out of NDA in 2019 after the Maharashtra elections. But the Sena now is split, thanks to the BJP’s deft political manoeuvring.
In Bihar, the JD(U), which has returned to the Opposition fold after a series of flip-flops, is but a pale shadow of its former self. And Upendra Kushwaha, who had merged his RLSP with the JD(U), has fallen out with Nitish and aligned with the BJP.
The SBSP in Uttar Pradesh, which has pockets of influence in Uttar Pradesh, is also looking at options. Prafulla Mohanta’s AGP and Chautalas’ INLD also seem to have diminished in their strongholds after aligning with the BJP.
The BRS and the Trinamool Congress, which had indirectly helped the BJP grow in their states at the expense of the Congress and the Left, are now realising it as they are facing the central agencies' music.
Many of the parties who have left the Opposition camp have anti-Congressism baked into their DNA.
The 1960s had seen ideologically incompatible parties uniting together to take on the Congress juggernaut, and 1967 could be considered a turning point when such a coalition managed to unseat Congress in some nine states.
The anti-Congress plank continued till the 1990s, but the emergence of the BJP has changed the axis of the Opposition unity to the anti-BJP plank.
Are these parties slaves to anti-Congressism?
Political analyst and writer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay does not think so, as their position towards the Congress would “largely depend” on its performance in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh elections.
Their reluctance could be more to do with the fear of central agencies, he says.
“You might have seen what is happening with the RJD in the past 4-5 days. Everybody is scared. The government is misusing the agencies to browbeat the Opposition and the parties have understood this message. They may come together much closer to the election when the government may not be able to use agencies like it does now,” he told DH.
The moves of former NDA allies in the run-up to the 2024 LS elections would be keenly watched.