Delhi Elections 2020: A litmus test for the BJP

Let's go back to April last year when the Lok Sabha Elections were about to begin. Political parties were hurling accusations against one another and leaders were dishing out promises. Everyone claimed to have something up their sleeves as the voters geared up to decide the fate of the nation. The BJP-led NDA government was on its toes, uncertain about a second term despite having Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah in their ranks.

The NDA won 353 seats and the BJP alone clinched victory in 303 seats. They swept aside every hurdle to come back to power for a second consecutive term.

Fast forward to February 2020, ahead of the Delhi Assembly elections. The BJP is at loggerheads with the Aam Admi Party in the national capital, with their leaders using every trick in the book to conquer Delhi. The desperation is high as the scenario for the saffron party has changed a bit recently, denting its invincible aura.
The party suffered in Maharashtra and it was followed by a defeat in Jharkhand. Ironically, in both places, the BJP was the ruling party.

That they failed to form the government in Maharashtra is something that will haunt the BJP for years to come. It was not that they didn't get the votes. Rather, after the Assembly elections in Maharashtra, the BJP emerged as the party with the most seats under its belt - 105 - way ahead of its then ally the Shiv Sena, which bagged 56 votes. The BJP was poised to come back to power for the second consecutive term and Devendra Fadnavis was gearing up to become the chief minister again. Politics, however, is full of unpredictability.

Who would have thought that the Shiv Sena would forsake the BJP and join hands with the Congress-NCP alliance? Who would have thought Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray and Sanjay Raut would pull a victory out of nowhere, outfoxing Devendra Fadnavis, not to mention Amit Shah and Narendra Modi. Who would have thought that an otherwise straightforward victory would bring mayhem for the BJP? Yet, that's what happened. The numerous press conferences, the dilemma of the Congress on whether to join hands with the Shiv Sena, the BJP forming a government for barely two days after support from Ajit Pawar, who defected from the NCP and later returned to the party, all ended in the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi, the present allied government of the NCP-Shiv Sena-Congress in Maharashtra.

Then came Jharkhand. The ruling BJP led by Raghubar Das was determined to win the Assembly elections. It was evident from the numerous rallies of Amit Shah and PM Narendra Modi. To thwart the BJP, the Opposition forces of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, and the NCP joined hands under the UPA banner. And in the end, the UPA emerged the winner in 48 out of the total 81 seats, with the JMM alone trotting to victory in 35 seats. The BJP, on the other hand, won 25 seats and it was a significant fall from the 37 seats that they won in the previous Assembly elections in Jharkhand.

The upcoming Delhi Assembly elections, with voting scheduled for Feb. 8 and counting on Feb. 11, is a gruelling test for the BJP. The recent poll setbacks have applied some brakes on the buoyant juggernaut. Delhi is already embroiled in protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act and the National Register of Citizens with Jamia Millia Islamia, JNU and Shaheen Bagh taking centre stage. The ruling NDA government at the Centre is facing unprecedented challenges to find ways to assuage protesters and win back the favour of the youth. Meanwhile, the AAP is confident about victory, with Arvind Kejriwal upping the ante with each passing day. A defeat for the BJP will create another blip on their popularity radar and a reduction in saffron dominance is bound to create ripples of anxiety inside the party.

The battle for the capital stands out throughout Indian history, with every ruler gunning for Delhi. The BJP is no exception, and with its back against the wall and air against its mast, this piece of election landscape holds the utmost importance for the party.

In a city founded by the Mughals, a litmus test awaits the BJP.