Fall in Covid-19 cases halts in many big states in India; clear rise visible in Delhi and Haryana

The halt in the decline in Covid-19 cases is visible in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab and Bihar

After a steady fall of nearly eight weeks, India’s Covid-19 epidemic has slowed down in many states, whereas a clear spike is visible in at least two states – Delhi and Haryana – with several other states reporting an increase in the number of new cases.

Even for the country as a whole, there is no further dip in the epidemic with the lowest point reached on October 30, according to the records maintained by the National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai.

The halt in the decline is visible in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab and Bihar where the epidemic curve is plateauing. But such a plateauing is yet to be seen in Karnataka. In contrast there is a rising trend in Telangana, Ladakh and Chandigarh.

But the spike is the most prominent in Haryana and Delhi, which is witnessing the second and third wave of the pandemic respectively. In the last 24 hours, Delhi with 7,178 deaths topped the country with maximum number of new positive cases overtaking Kerala and Maharashtra.

“The observed fall is an initial sign of shift in the transmission areas from fewer densely populated metropolitan cities to areas with relatively lower population density and variable testing strategy. With free population movement, variable mask/distancing compliance and festivities, the rate of decline can’t be steeper any more, given that there are areas which are yet to see a surge in cases,” said Giridhar Babu, an epidemiologist at the Public Health Foundation of India, Bengaluru.

The national capital also moved to the second spot in the list of states with the maximum number of deaths in the last 24 hours.

"After getting a good control on the transmission, many states are now seeing a large number of new cases, rising at an alarming rate. The virus moves when people move and gather in crowds. Many people on the streets believe that Covid-19 is something that happens to others,” Oommen John, a public health specialist at the George Institute for Global Health, Delhi told DH.

"The health systems are fatigued and the health workforce exhausted, so it is important to exercise caution. The death rates will shoot up when the health system's capacity is stretched," Jon added.

More than 50,000 new Covid-19 cases were registered again on Saturday, making it the second case of 50,000 daily cases in the last three days in the country. The hike is due to the surges being seen in Delhi and Kerala in the wake of the festivities coupled with a halt in the decline.

“Why have the restraints about how many persons can be inside public transport or shops been lifted - was this informed by evidence?” wondered John.

India’s Covid-19 tally stands at 84.62 lakh on Saturday, of which 50,356 were added in the last 24 hours. The death toll is 1,25,562, out of which 577 happened in the same period. The toll was on the high on Friday (670) and Thursday (704) too.