The politically crucial 'Poorvanchal' (eastern) region of Uttar Pradesh appears to be heading for a tough electoral battle in the forthcoming assembly polls in the state with the BJP and its main rival Samajwadi Party (SP) striving hard to expand their base beyond their core vote bank.
BJP had swept the region by bagging 115 of the 164 seats in the 2017 assembly elections riding its alliance with the Apna Dal (AD) and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP). SP had won 17 followed by the BSP, which had emerged victorious on 14 seats. Congress could manage only two seats while the others, mainly the alliance partners of the BJP, had bagged 16 seats.
The situation this time, however, has changed drastically.
BJP's 2017 ally, the SBSP, which enjoys considerable support among the 'Rajbhar' community, has joined hands with the SP in the forthcoming assembly polls. Although the 'Rajbhar' community formed only four per cent of the total electorate in the state, they formed 12 to 23 percent of the electorate in several districts in the 'Poorvanchal' region, especially in Varanasi, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Mau, Ballia and Ghazipur.
Similarly, the Janvadi Party (Socialist), which wields considerable influence over the 'Nonia' community, which are in sizable strength on around a dozen seats in the region, has also allied with the SP this time.
Political experts opine that if the SP manages to bring the votes of the 'Rajbhar' and Nonia' communities to its kitty then along with the support of its core voters-Yadavs and Muslims-it may give the saffron party a run for its money in the region, which sends more than one third MLAs to the state assembly.
Interestingly even in 2017 assembly polls, which the BJP had swept, the latter could manage to win only one out of 10 seats in Azamgarh four out of nine seats in Jaunpur, three out of seven seats in Ghazipur, two out five in Ambedkar Nagar and two out of seven in Pratapgarh districts. In the last year's panchayat polls also, the SP had defeated the BJP nominees in Azamgarh, Ballia, Sant Kabir Nagar and some other districts.
BJP would need to repeat its 2017 performance in the eastern region in the forthcoming assembly polls if it were to nurture any hope of returning to power. The 'Poorvanchal' region has assumed added significance for the saffron party in view of the perceived anger among the 'Jat' community in the western UP, which had been on the forefront of the farmers' agitation against the now scrapped farm laws.
No wonder the BJP has been striving hard to maintain its grip on the region. The party has been highlighting its 'Hindutva' agenda in its public meetings along with showcasing the newly built expressways. Prime minister Narendra Modi, UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath and union home minister Amit Shah have referred to the development of Hindu religious places, including Ayodhya, Prayagraj, Mirzapur and Varanasi to woo the voters.
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