PM Modi in Bali: Ukraine shadow over India’s G20 presidency

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday reached Bali to take over from Indonesian President Joko Widodo the onerous task of keeping the G20 united amid growing acrimony between Moscow and Washington DC and leading the bloc through the geopolitical churning triggered by Russia’s military operations in Ukraine.

“India’s G20 Presidency will be grounded in the theme of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam or One Earth, One Family, One Future, which underlines the message of equitable growth and shared future for all,” Modi said just before leaving New Delhi for Bali to attend the bloc’s 17th summit being hosted by Widodo. The prime minister also said that he would reaffirm during his interventions at the summit the “unwavering commitment” of New Delhi to collectively addressing the “global challenges”

Modi will take over the G20 presidency from Widodo at the end of the summit in Bali on Wednesday. He will hold the presidency for a year from December 1 and will host the 18th summit of the bloc in New Delhi on September 9 and 10 next year.

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Indonesia’s G20 presidency over the past 12 months was plagued by escalating tension between Russia and the western nations, led by the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union, over the former Soviet Union nation’s military aggression against Ukraine. The president of the South-East Asian nations visited both Moscow and Kyiv earlier this year, but failed to broker peace.

The long shadow of the Russia-Ukraine conflict did not spare the G20 – the premier forum for international economic and financial cooperation. Though the 17th summit of the bloc is all set to start in Bali early on Tuesday, the Sherpas and the Sous-Sherpas of the member nations could not yet reach a consensus on the joint communiqué to be issued at the end of the conclave.

The US and the other western nations are insisting on harsh condemnation for Russia’s war against Ukraine in the joint statement. The move is being steadfastly resisted by Russia. India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and several other nations suggested a middle way – a toned-down reference to the Russia-Ukraine war, limiting only to expressing concerns over the conflict and the consequent food and energy crises and inflation as well as its adverse impact on post-Covid-19 economic recovery.

Widodo may have to issue a chair’s statement at the end of the G20 summit, if the joint communiqué cannot be adopted due to differences over text.

India has been maintaining a delicate balance between its decades-old defence cooperation with Russia and its growing strategic convergence with the US, the UK, Japan, Australia and France in the Indo-Pacific region. It is likely to continue its balancing act after Modi takes over the G20 presidency from Widodo on Wednesday, as the tension between Russia and the US-led West is now set to spill over to its G20 presidency. If Russia escalates its war against Ukraine, India, which will hold the G20 presidency over the next 12 months, will come under pressure from the US and the other western nations to act against the former Soviet Union nation.

Modi on Monday said that he would extend during his stay in Bali on Tuesday and Wednesday his “personal invitation” to the members of the G20 nations and other invitees to the 18th summit, which he, himself, would host in New Delhi.

Modi may have a bilateral meeting with the US President Joe Biden, the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron, who are among the leaders attending the conclave. President Vladimir Putin is not attending the G20 summit in Bali and has instead sent his foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to lead the delegation of Russia.