Above normal rains in Aug-September in peninsular India: IMD

Southern peninsular regions of the country are expected to receive bountiful monsoon showers in August-September, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.

Releasing the monsoon forecast for August and September, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said western Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan, some parts of interior Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, some parts of Punjab and Himachal Pradesh were likely to receive below-normal rainfall.

The IMD defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 89 cms for the four-month season beginning in June.

“As changes in sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to influence the Indian monsoon, the IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these ocean basins,” he told reporters in a virtual press conference.

Currently, the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate neutral ENSO (El Nino) conditions, while forecasts indicate warming of the Indian Ocean leading to negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions.

The monsoon forecast is expected to help farmers plan their crops effectively for the Kharif season. The sowing for summer crops such as paddy, maize, cotton, soybeans, groundnuts, sugarcane begins in June and continues till early August.

According to the agriculture ministry, till July 23 farmers had sown summer crops in 721.36 lakh hectares, down from 791.84 lakh hectares in the corresponding period of Kharif season 2020. The area sown to paddy, the main Kharif crop, was down 7% at 207.65 lakh hectares as against 222.88 lakh hectares in the said period.

The Southwest Monsoon had a delayed onset over Kerala on June 3, but it progressed very rapidly and covered the east, west, south and parts of north India by June 19. The monsoon entered a break phase and covered parts of west Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and Delhi in the second week of July.

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