Rapid vaccination, preventive strategies can thwart second Covid-19 wave: SBI report

Rapid vaccination coupled with strict preventive strategies would be able to thwart the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI), the public-sector banking and financial services giant.

The report prepared by SBI's Economic Research Department states that in India, 15% of the population can be fully vaccinated and 84% can get their first shot by December 2021.

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Experiences of other countries show infections stabilise after 15% of the population receive a second dose, the report said.

The national peak may come two weeks after Maharashtra peak, according to the report prepared by Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI.

The Spanish Flu in 1918 showed more deaths in later waves, thus vaccination is must to avoid larger fatalities later. Injection to infection ratio shows that India made rapid improvement this year but it is still below Israel, Chile and the United Kingdom, the report said.

Read | Over 13.5 crore Covid vaccine doses administered in India

“Almost 900 million people at least have received one dose of Covid-19 vaccine worldwide. However, top 15 countries accounted for 84% of total vaccination, indicating huge unevenness. Only 2.6% of the population is fully vaccinated in the world, and in India, only 1.2% of the population is fully vaccinated till now,” the report points out.

The vaccination rollout is also being increased – both by Pune-based Serum Institute of India and Hyderabad-based Bharat Biotech.

SII is expected to increase its production capacity to 110 mn doses per month while Bharat Biotech is expected to increase its production capacity to 12 mn doses per month by July. Also, Sputnik vaccine will be imported from May onwards.

“Taking these into account, we believe a total of 1,132 million doses can be given by December, in which 15% of the population can be fully vaccinated and 84% can get their first shot,” the report states.

The SBI model suggests that the estimated peak time is 96 days from 15 February, indicating the peak happening in the 3rd week of May.

Read | Bharat Biotech says Covaxin has shown 78% efficacy against mild to severe Covid-19 symptoms

The report points out that Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra achieved peaks before the national peak in the first wave.

“Now new cases in Maharashtra seem to be stabilising but the share of cases in total of various other states (Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat) has increased in the current second wave and these are showing an increase in daily new cases. So, if other states also implement strict actions and control the spread, then national peak may come within 2 weeks after Maharashtra peak,” the report said.

Certain states like Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh have lower percentages of their population above 45 years and have already given vaccine shots to a larger percentage of population above 45 years. However, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal have a higher percentage of population above 45 years and have inoculated less proportion of those above 45 years.

Also, the state-wise performance in case of vaccination is quite uneven. Our “Vaccine Hesitancy Index” calculated as doses administered per 100 available shows that all N-E states and in states like Goa, Jharkhand, Assam, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh there is a vaccine hesitancy.