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Rupee, oil, trade war fears to decide market course

Last Updated 01 July 2018, 07:25 IST

A range of global and domestic factors, including crude oil prices, global trade tariff concerns, rupee movement and monsoon progress, will decide the fate of domestic bourses this week, say experts.

"Domestic market is expected to trade in a range-bound manner with a negative bias in the near term as investors will adopt a risk-off approach on concerns of global trade tensions, rising oil prices and macro worries," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said.

Besides, a good monsoon, better GDP growth and continued flow of domestic money will cap downside, he said, adding that any stability in oil prices and rupee will bring some respite to markets.

PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors would also influence trading sentiment this week, other experts noted.

Oil remains a key determining factor for the market direction while other multiple headwinds like inflation and fiscal path would be keenly watched by the participants, Nair said.

"Volatility is likely to remain, owing to negative global cues as well as domestic factors such as elections, pressure on CAD and fiscal deficit from higher crude prices," Teena Virmani, Vice President of Research, Kotak Securities Ltd, said.

Auto stocks would also remain in focus this week amid monthly sales data announcement.

Moreover, markets would also track Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Thursday.

Over the last week, the Sensex registered a fall of 266.12 points, or 0.75 per cent, to end at 35,423.48.

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(Published 01 July 2018, 06:33 IST)

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