South-west monsoon to hit Kerala coast on May 30

Chances of 2009 drought repeat are remote now, say weathermen

The forecast comes with an error margin of four days, which means the monsoon can enter the country anytime between May 26 and June 4.

The monsoon onset over Kerala represents the beginning of the rainy season over the Indian subcontinent.

After the 2009 drought, the country is eagerly awaiting the rains.

Earlier prediction
Last month, the Indian Meteorological Department had predicted that the 2010 south-west monsoon would be normal and the country was expected to receive 98 per cent of the last 50 years’ average rainfall.

The normal date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea is May 20.
The Indian Meteorological Department expects the monsoon flow will start appearing over the Andaman Sea by next week and likely cover it close to the normal date.

The Met agency, however, has put a rider by ruling out any one-to-one relation between advancement over the Andaman Sea and the monsoon hitting the Kerala coast.

The IMD officials are of the opinion that the chances of a 2009 repeat is remote now.

Last year, the weathermen predicted 96 per cent monsoon, which was revised to 93 per cent in June and further brought down to 87 per cent, as drought struck close to 200 districts affecting paddy cultivation in 54 lakh hectares leading to a shortage of 10 million tonnes of rice.

Oilseeds and sugarcane crops, too, were hit.

But this time, copious rainfall is likely in most parts of the country. Weather scientists from both India and abroad say the 2010 monsoon is “likely to be within the normal range.”

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