Bypolls pose serious concerns to all parties in Kerala

The Election Commission's decision to conduct bypolls to two Assembly seats in Kerala has come as a shock to all major political parties in Kerala for political reasons.

Bypolls to Chavara constituency in Kollam and Kuttanad in Alappuzha were overdue following the death of sitting MLAs Vijayan Pillai of the Left front and former minister Thomas Chandy of the NCP, which is also a coalition partner of the Left Front in Kerala, respectively.

While the ruling CPM-led Left front is worried about the unfavourable political climate prevailing in the state owing to a series of allegations like the nexus with gold smuggling accused and Sandalwood drug racket, the Congress-led United Democratic Front is concerned as the power tussle within the Kerala Congress (M) might have its repercussions in the bypolls. The Kerala Congress candidates had been contesting for the Kuttanad seat for the last several elections. For the BJP also, the Kuttanad seat could be a cause of concern owing to tussles within the coalition partner Bharatiya Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) led by SNDP leader Vellappally Natesan's son Thushar Vellappally.

Though all political parties generally feel that the bypolls are unwanted at this time as the term of the current government is ending by May 2021 and the new MLAs would have hardly a five-month term, no parties would openly demand a review of the decision as it would be misinterpreted by the opposite camps as fear of facing the polls. However, political party representatives may share their views at a meeting with the Election Commission.

While CPM State Secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan said that the Left front was prepared to face people's mandate anytime and was confident of winning both the seats by highlighting the government's achievements, UDF convenor Benny Behennan reacted that the bypolls would be an evaluation of the Pinarayi Vijayan government's performance.

Though bypolls often favour ruling parties and both Kuttanad and Chavara seats are Left front's sitting seats, CPM is concerned over the prevailing political climate in Kerala. The nexus of gold smuggling case accused with Kerala Chief Minister's former principal secretary M Sivasankar, Bineesh Kodiyeri's connections with Sandalwood drug-peddling accused, the alleged nexus of the UAE consulate former officials, accused of gold smuggling, with Kerala Higher Education Minister K T Jaleel, widespread protests against the government over backdoor appointments, and several other corruption allegations against the government have cast a shadow over the prospects of the Left front.

For the Congress-led UDF, though the political climate was generally favourable, power tussle in Kerala Congress (M) would be a major concern when it comes to the Kuttanad seat. Over the last many elections, a member of the P J Joseph group in Kerala Congress (M) used to be the UDF candidate at Kuttanad. But this time, the rival faction led by Rajya Sabha MP Jose K Mani might also stake claim owing to the infight in the party.

While Congress leaders are now trying to settle the tussle on a war-footing basis, the Left front has already sent indirect welcome messages to the Jose K Mani camp.

For the BJP also, the Kuttanad seat may see a tussle over candidate selection. The seat was allotted to coalition partner BDJS. But Subash Vasu, who earlier contested from Kuttanad, is now on an open revolt against the BDJS leadership. Simmering infights in BJP state leadership following selection of K Surendran as state president may also come to the fore during the bypolls.