Sugar output to fall by 8.4% in 2022-23 as erratic rainfall hits yields

India’s sugar production is likely to fall to 32.8 million tonnes in the marketing year ending September 2023, which is 8.37% down from its previous year’s output of 35.8 million tonnes, as erratic rainfall hit sugarcane yields in the country, industry body data showed.

The country’s largest sugar producing state Maharashtra is the worst hit due to the erratic weather conditions. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) on Wednesday cut its estimate for actual sugar production in Maharashtra for 2022-23 marketing season to 10.5 million tonnes from its earlier estimate of 12.1 million tonnes announced in January.

ISMA president Aditya Jhunjhunwala said sugarcane crops in the country have slumped due to erratic weather conditions. “Sugarcane crops did not get ample rainfall during the growth phase and got too much when it was not required,” he said.

Also Read | No fertile future yet for farmers' scheme

In Karnataka, the third largest sugar producing state, the output is estimated to fall to 5.7 million tonnes from 6 million tonnes recorded in the previous year. In January, ISMA had pegged actual sugar production in Karnataka at 5.6 million tonnes. It has been marginally revised upward to 5.7 million tonnes.

For Uttar Pradesh the estimate has been revised upward to 10.5 million tonnes from 10.1 million tonnes.

India’s actual sugar production stood at 35.8 million tonnes in the marketing year 2021-22, the highest ever. In October 2022, ISMA pegged the output for the current marketing year at 36.5 million tonnes.

In January, the industry association revised its sugar production estimate down to 34 million tonnes. This has been further lowered by 3.5% to 32.8 million tonnes. Sugar marketing year runs from October to September.

Sugar production in the country upto 15th April in the current marketing year stood at 31.1 million tonnes, 5.3% down from 32.87 million tonnes recorded in the corresponding period of the last year.

Lower output has led to a surge in sugar prices. Ex-mill sugar prices in the country have surged by around Rs 200 per quintal in the past month.

ISMA has also revised downwards its estimates for diversion of sugar for ethanol production. It has been lowered to 4 million tonnes from the earlier projection of 4.5 million tonnes announced in January. The estimated sugar diversion in Karnataka has been lowered to 1 million tonnes from the earlier estimate of 1.1 million tonnes.

“Crushing season in Maharashtra has ended at around 10.5 million tonnes, lower than our earlier estimate, due to unexpectedly lower cane yields owing to higher ratoon crop share and uneven distribution of rainfall,” ISMA said in a statement.

Main season in Karnataka is on the verge of closure and has produced around 5.5 lakh tonnes so far. However, a special season will operate in Karnataka from June/July 2023, the industry body said.