Talk of third Covid-19 wave distracting us from what must be done now, says virologist

The second wave was too much too fast and the healthcare infrastructure was overwhelmed, says Dr Jacob

As frantic calls for beds, oxygen and medicines continue to amplify amid the looming second wave of Covid-19, the fear of a third wave is fuelling the anxiety of an overwhelmed nation.

On Wednesday, the government had announced that the third wave of Covid-19 is inevitable.

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“As we are reeling under the burden of the second wave, talking about a future third wave -- that we do not know will come at all or its magnitude -- is distracting attention away from what the government must do now,” points out Dr T Jacob John, eminent virologist and retired professor, CMC (Vellore).

"If the government can do justice with vaccination, even the unlikely probability of a third wave can be mitigated. In other words, with vaccines available since January 3, 2021, the third wave can be and must be prevented with vaccination," he said.

But if the third wave occurs, he said the main factor could be a lack of sufficient vaccination. "Emergence of highly transmissible variants could be another factor. However, the two waves would have created high "herd immunity" and topped up with even a moderate level of vaccination will surely avert the third wave."

As the second wave continues to lash unabated, Dr Jacob explains what went wrong in controlling it.

"The letting down of guard too fast and too wide (for religious events and for elections) contributed to the rapid spread and bringing fast-spreading variants that would have reached West Bengal and UP very slowly had there not been these two events, ” he said.

By all means, Covid has brought to light a broken public healthcare system and Dr Jacob points out that India's health management system is woefully inadequate even during normal times. “For one thing, India does not have public health infrastructure -- for which reason pandemic control was entrusted with National Disaster Management Agency, a frank admission of lack of public health."

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“As for healthcare we have been working under grossly inadequate bed strength, doctors and nurses -- so we did not have surge capacity when needed. The first wave grew very slowly and India (Karnataka included) barely managed.

The second wave was too much too fast and the healthcare infrastructure was overwhelmed. This pandemic is an oxygen consumer and sudden expansion of demand could not be met,” Dr Jacob said.

With the public patiently waiting to get inoculated amid a short supply, Dr Jacob attributes vaccine shortage to “bad management, wrong prediction of need, lack of advance order and lack of willingness to take legitimate risks for protecting human lives”.

“If Indian companies cannot meet demand, we must import vaccines from any source,” he said.

As far as extending the lockdown is concerned, he avers that the right time for a humane and effective lockdown is long past.

“Anyway, lockdown is not the panacea. Now the wave is racing towards the peak, which in my estimation, is round the corner. The wave itself will slow down the spread from early next week itself. If at all, a short, a maximum of one week and a well-planned lockdown with full information to the public may be justified,” he said.